Browns (-3) at Bengals:
I don’t really like either side here. The Browns would normally be an obvious play but they’re missing their best run blocker and a receiver. Mayfield also isn’t fully fit so their offense is in trouble here. They killed the Bengals on the ground earlier in the season but it may be harder here. Saying that the Bengals have injuries as well on the D-line, this is a case of 2 teams not at full strength.
I’m not betting this game and I believe the most likely result is Cleveland by 3 so I’ll just take this as a no bet against the spread as well.
Browns 20-17 Bengals
Cowboys (-1) at Washington
I can’t bring myself to confidently bet Washington here considering they played last week like a team trying to lose. The decision to go for 2 in a game they were in full control of was utterly baffling considering the Giants only scored off Allen turnovers for the entire game. On paper though Washington should win here, Dallas are poorly coached, suck on the road, have no defense and have O-line injuries. The only advantage Dallas have is that the Washington secondary is awful so if Dalton got time, he’d have a good game.
Yet again, this is a no bet since both teams are looking like tankers and could intentionally lose this one but I’ll say Washington since they really should win here.
Washington 17-14 Dallas
Lions at Falcons (-2.5)
I really want to like Detroit here since they have an equally talented roster to Atlanta and should be able to decimate the Atlanta secondary. The thing that holds me back though is that they won’t be able to establish the run in the same way as last week. Also they’re missing Trufant which means Atlanta should have a good day through the air.
While the line is 2.5 I actually like Atlanta to cover. They should have a comfortable day on offense and their defense seems to have a new coach bounce for the time being. I’m not sure I’m confident enough to say this game is a bet but for the purposes of the column I’ll say they cover.
Atlanta 30-24 Detroit
Panthers at Saints (-6.5)
Yet again this is a game marred by injuries. If Michael Thomas was fit, I’d be all over the Saints but with him and Sanders both out, the offense will be hurt. The Panthers are missing some defenders though so the Saints will still be able to score points. The Panthers offense may struggle here, their running backs aren’t fully fit and Sean Payton will know Bridgewater very well so he may be able to scheme up to stop him.
Yet again, I really don’t want to bet this game. I’ll take the Saints to cover very speculatively but there is very little confidence in this pick.
Saints 24-17 Panthers
Bills (-10) vs Jets
This is just a case of can the Bills score 24 points and cover here. They have a lot of injuries which does worry me and the Jets will have more of an offense with Darnold and one of their guards coming back but I can’t bet this game yet again. Injuries are really hurting good teams right now and the bad teams in this league are just terrible at the moment so this gameweek is a struggle betting wise.
I like the Bills to cover still. The Jets are the most pathetic team I’ve seen in years and I can’t back them to cover spreads this year, just the swing in injuries makes this a no bet game for me as technically if the Jets weren’t so badly coached they would be able to be close here.
Bills 24-13 Jets
Packers (-3.5) at Texans
This is another big potential bet completely ruined by the injury report. I loved the Pakcers going into this since Aaron Jones would’ve killed the Texans, but of course he’s out and the Packers are missing 2 offensive linemen to boot. Normally this would swing things in the favour of the Texans but Houston suck this year and I don’t want to bet against Aaron Rodgers off a loss. The Texans actually should have joy on offense since Green Bay are down a few of their better defensive players.
So I’m picking Green Bay here purely for the Aaron Rodgers factor and I like the coaching at Green Bay more than the coaching at Houston. This probably means I should only recommend small stakes for this game.
Green Bay 27-20 Houston
Steelers at Titans (-1.5)
The Titans have been really well bet this week off the back of injury news for Pittsburgh. The line was Pittsburgh -2 but looks to be heading to Titans -2 by kickoff. I was originally on Pittsburgh but I can see why the Titans appeal, they’re more healthy than the Steelers and are humming along nicely on offense. Combine that with home advantage and you have a pretty accurate line. I like Tannehill over Roethlisberger at the moment, he can stretch the field more and the offense played seriously well last week.
I’ll follow the sharps and take the Titans to win, I don’t have a lot of confidence on this one but I like it just about enough to say it’s worth a small bet. If Adoree Jackson plays this becomes a better pick.
Titans 27-23 Steelers
Buccaneers at Raiders:
This game isn’t available on a betting front since the entire starting o-line of the Raiders has been made to self isolate. Obviously the Buccaneers will likely win this game with one of the best D-lines in the league and this disavantage so I’ll put a score here but I wouldn’t bet any spread and this may be postponed anyway. If the Raiders O-line does turn out to play I actually kind of like the Raiders as having an advantage in this one. I’m going to put this up with the assumption of the Raiders O-line not playing and go for a Tampa blowout.
Buccaneers 27-14 Raiders
49ers at Patriots (-2.5)
The injury gods have been good to us in this one. New England will be massively underrated by people after a poor performance last week but they had no chance since they were missing 4 offensive linemen against a decent D-line. But they get 2 of their guys back, meanwhile the 49ers have lost guys in the middle of the field so the Patriots should be able to exploit that are easily in the passing game and run the ball a bit better. The Patriots also nullified Kelce a couple of weeks ago and can do the same with Kittle so Jimmy G may lose his safety blanket and has 2 offensive linemen missing.
The only concern I have is that the line has been static, If the line starts moving for New England then this becomes a big play in my eyes and probably the play of the week.
Patriots 26-14 49ers
Chiefs (-7.5) at Broncos
We’ve seen a nice 2 point move for the Broncos after their big performance last week. I also really like Denver to cover and maybe be the upset of the week. The Chiefs are missing 2 offensive linemen against a hot Denver D-line, are coming off a shortened week and Denver are getting defenders back from IR. Lock played nicely enough last week and faces a weaker defense this week so I can see Denver getting in the endzone this time.
I’m picking this as the upset of the week, the Chiefs may not score as many points as most people think and off a big game and a short week, they may be caught cold in a tough environment.
Broncos 24-21 Chiefs
Jaguars at Chargers (-7)
I love the Chargers here. They’re a bit of bad luck away from being 3-2 and the Jags suck as well as having a couple of injuries in the middle of the field. Justin Herbert looks the real deal and finally gets a friendly matchup to prove that in. The Chargers get Melvin Ingram back as well so the pass rush will improve nicely for that bounce meaning Minshew should have a tough day out
Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals
This is another hard one to call. The spread number looks perfect with Jamal Adams out as this is going to be a straight up shootout. Both defences have major holes and both offenses are humming along. The only major edge I can see is Seattle having extra time to prepare, it’s a shame Arizona don’t have Jones playing as I’d bet them if that was the case.
I’m going to pick Arizona to pull this one off. The game could go either way being honest and I couldn’t give a clear bet so I’m just going to follow my gut and say Arizona win though being honest this is a last team that gets the ball wins kind of game.
Arizona 34-30 Seattle
Bears at Rams (-6)
At this number, I want to take the Bears. They’ll get a lot of pressure on Jared Goff and will probably restrict the Rams offense. I hope the Bears can scheme something in the middle of the field to get their offense down the field as I can see them doing well with Graham in the redzone if they get there, look for him to score in this one.
I’ll take the Bears here as stated above. This is more because I like them restricting the Rams score wise and I think them getting 17 points will be enough for the cover though I see them losing still.
Rams 20-17 Bears
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