NFL Week 11 Preview and Predictions

Eagles at Browns (-2.5)

My way of approaching this game was to look through the form lines both teams had with the Bengals. The Eagles tying at home with the Bengals and the Browns winning by 3 on the road in the Bengals would normally make the Browns a team that would be 6 point favourites at home to the Eagles. So the spread looks a bit suspiciously low to me, the reason seems to be that Miles Garrett and Wyatt Teller are questionable and if they both miss today the Eagles should win. This one comes to the injury report for me and in the scenario only 1 of them was out I’d bet the Browns since I feel they may be a little underrated due to having a lot of tough matchups recently.

Overall, I’m picking the Browns here to cover but this switches to the Eagles if both Teller and Garrett are out since the Eagles are getting more offensive line players back so may see an uptick from Wentz.

Browns 24-20 Eagles

Falcons at Saints (-3.5)

This game for me is really hard to handicap. I think the Taysom Hill start is a possible bluff and he’ll take the first snap before Jameis comes in as the primary quarterback but it could also just be that Payton knows what he’s doing and has Hill in on merit. I can see there being a dynamic aswell of the Saints seeing this as a revenge game after the Falcons blew them out in the Superdome last year. These teams though are actually closely matched on paper based on results this year and the Falcons should keep it close through 3 quarters, but my main concern with them is they still don’t finish games and this may be the thing that cracks them again here.

I would love to bet on the Saints if I got -3 but I’m still ok with taking -3.5, they have a lot going in their favour here and I can just see them outplaying Atlanta in the second half of this one.

Saints 28-24 Falcons

Lions (-1.5) at Panthers

There’s too many injuries in this game to even give a worthwhile preview or betting tip for this one. I’d have liked to have seen some preseason action with so many backups replacing injured key players here but with nothing to rely on I can only take a blind guess for the purposes of having a prediction. I’m going to take Detroit here since the Panthers D is so bad that even backups can probably feast on them, I see this definitely being a shootout and I don’t feel amazing picking a road favourite but I trust the Lions D a little more than the Panthers D and I can see them winning by a score due to that.

Lions 30-23 Panthers

Patriots (-2.5) at Texans

I really like the Patriots here even on a short week. This is due to there being a monumental coaching mismatch here and the Texans being dreadful against the run which should play into the hands of a run first offense like the Patriots. My concern is obviously whether the Patriots will be able to stop Houston enough but I think they can since I can’t see Houston doing much on the ground and New England have been able to force turnovers this season. I like the Patriots by a couple of scores in a game they can control.

Patriots 27-17 Texans

Steelers (-10.5) at Jaguars

I hate betting double digit favourites on the road as there isn’t too much motivation to play hard the whole time if you’re a few scores ahead and this brings backdoor covers into play. Pittsburgh also have historically played down to the opposition when big favourites on the road which further concerns me about them. But I still can’t bet the Jags because on paper Pittsburgh should destroy Luton with their defense so I’m going to riskily say the Jags cover as there was also some early money for them but not bet the game.

Steelers 23-17 Jaguars

Bengals at Washington (-1)

I think this is a game where the wrong team is favourite. Washington are a mess right now and are just finding every possible way to lose. Also they were blown out by 14 against the Browns earlier this season and I’d say the Bengals aren’t much worse than the Browns. Washington have really struggle against anyone not in the NFC East and I see this continuing as I thought the Bengals maybe warranted being 4 point favourites. Washington have some good defensive stats but that’s mainly because half of the games they’ve played so far have been against NFC East teams, the secondary is pretty poor and Burrow will have success I believe against it. The Bengals are one of my bets of the week and I hope they can win this comfortably.

Bengals 27-14 Washington

Titans at Ravens (-6)

Ugh I hate this matchup on a betting front. In my eyes these are 2 of the most overrated teams in the league. Tennessee have an awful D that really isn’t mentioned enough and Lamar Jackson has regressed in form from last year which is only just starting to get noticed after the New England game. I still like Baltimore at home here though. Jackson struggles when he has less time in the pocket but that won’t be an issue against this awful pass rush so I’m expecting that weakness to not be an issue here, there is also a revenge game angle here that can work in the favour of Baltimore.

Ravens 24-14 Titans

Dolphins (-4) at Broncos

Of all of the opening lines this week, this was the one that confused me the most. The Broncos look awful right now and Miami can’t stop winning so I thought Miami would be favourites by a touchdown. Some money has come in since it was originally Dolphins -3 but this line is surely still too low even though bookies have been good with games that have weirdly low lines this year. The Denver offense is just bad and Lock is very haphazard and turnover happy which is good news for a very strong secondary and the only chance Denver has is if Gordon can have success on the ground which I’m not sure will happen. Meanwhile Miami on offense should do enough to put up around 24 points which will be plenty enough for me to win this.

Dolphins 24-10 Broncos

Jets at Chargers (-10)

I really like the Chargers even at this number. They’ll play hard all game due to being at home and while they can be very Jekyll and Hyde, the Jets simply won’t be able to compete with their talent, especially with Joey Bosa back and the Jets missing their top 2 corners which will mean Allen should be open all game. The Chargers could easily cross the 30 point mark and I can’t see a Joe Flacco offense keeping up as the season of tanking carries on for the Jets.

Chargers 30-10 Jets

Packers at Colts (-1.5)

This is probably the hardest game to pick for me as I can make very strong arguments for either side. If you’re on the Colts you’re expecting the Packers run D to continue its atrocious form and for this game to be very similar to the game the Packers had with the Vikings where Rivers won’t have to do much. For Green Bay you’ll expect Rodgers to tear apart a slightly disappointing defense and the defense to just make enough plays to get a win here which they can do in the passing game with their corners coming back this week. I’m going to pick the Packers since the Colts have been disappointing in big games so far this season and I’ll just pick that trend to continue though I’m not sure this is a game to bet.

Packers 27-21 Colts

Cowboys at Vikings (-7)

I really want to like Dallas here, they’re getting healthier, have had extra rest and the Vikings have come off an ugly win against the Bears and may be looking past this game a bit as a result. But I just don’t like betting teams that are really bad and Dallas definitely fit the bill, Andy Dalton is back for Dallas though which means they’ll have some QB play but I feel he is starting to regress in this offense and may be poor again here even with a favourable matchup so he may not give them the bounce people think he might. I’m still going to pick them but I will not be watching or betting this game.

Vikings 21-17 Cowboys

Chiefs (-7) at Raiders

The Raiders have seen a real surge in money as of late so I’m just going to pick them for this reason. They seem to consistently have guys on the COVID list but it hasn’t really affected their performance and maybe this is the only thing driving the move for them is getting people off that list but I also liked how they beat Kansas earlier in the year and while I think they lose this game, they can cover the spread and maybe only go down to a late field goal. This will likely be a complete shootout and in those sort of games, taking a big underdog usually is the better play.

Chiefs 30-27 Raiders

Rams at Buccaneers (-4)

The spread here is too low for me. I can see why the Rams will be bet on since the Bucs D is overrated outside of the defensive line but Goff is terrible against teams that can get to him and I can see that being the case here with Whitworth out for this one. This may stall the Rams offense completely and their D isn’t good enough to shut down this Bucs offense. I just think the Rams are a shade overrated and are probably a middling side at best despite a good record meaning Tampa should be nearer to a 7 point favourite for me.

Buccaneers 27-17 Rams

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: