NFL Week 12 Predictions (Abridged Version)

Sorry everyone, I’m busy again this weekend so I only have time to do brief previews of the week 12 slate of games.

Cardinals (-1.5) at Patriots

This spread looks suspiciously low. Based on what we saw from New England last week you’d expect Arizona to be too fast for this team and win easily. Kyler Murray was an injury concern but looks good to go this week so I’d expect Arizona to win by around a touchdown with the main concern being the run defense may struggle but New England weren’t too effective running in a very good rushing matchup last week.

Cardinals 24-20 Patriots

Panthers at Vikings (-3)

This is probably going to be a game offenses dominate. Cook is likely to be able to gash the Panthers on the ground since the Panthers are conceding 115 yards rushing a game and the only high level RBs they’ve faced so far are Jacobs, Gurley and Kamara. But the Vikings secondary is fairly awful so with Bridgewater fit I’d expect the Panthers to have a lot of joy as well. I expect this to be a 1 score game and a surprising shootout with the most likely results being Vikings by 3 or Panthers by 3 so by that logic I’ll take Panthers +3 here as the play but not bet it.

Vikings 31-28 Panthers

Browns (-7) at Jaguars

There isn’t too much to say here, Mike Glennon starts for the Jags so they’ll probably just put up somewhere between 14-20 points which may be enough to keep the game close but they’ll be aiming to lose to consolidate the 2nd pick now the Bengals are likely to lose out so I can’t bet the spread here. The Browns will likely sit on the running game and have a lot of success with it. I’m going to say this is a similar game to the Jaguars-Lions game from earlier in the season and pick Cleveland to cover.

Browns 27-14 Jaguars

Chargers at Bills (-4.5)

This is a headscratcher for me as to why the number is so low. The Chargers are horribly coached and seem to switch off in the middle of games but they’ve been getting hammered all week in the betting. The only obvious reason may be the return of Ekeler and he gets a surprisingly good matchup here against a poor Buffalo run D so if he’s fit then he’ll have a nice day. But the Chargers D looks atrocious and struggle against the deep ball which Buffalo thrives off of meaning I like them to match up well on offense and get the win here.

Bills 34-24 Chargers

Raiders (-3) at Falcons

I weirdly like the Falcons here. They should have a better record than they do and I genuinely believe they’re at a similar talent level to the Raiders. Both teams will likely live off of their aerial attacks due to both defenses being stronger against the run than the pass and Matt Ryan and Derek Carr are at a similar level to me. This feels like it should be a pick em spread meaning we get some value with the Falcons since a loss by a field goal is a refund. I’ll take them to win the game outright here.

Falcons 27-24 Raiders

Dolphins (-7) at Jets

The Dolphins had their bubble burst last week but were mainly gashed on the ground and the Jets don’t have the run game to exploit that issue in their team. The question is will the Jets play hard enough at home to keep the game close and maybe even steal a win. The answer for me is no due to the coaching mismatch and that Miami will be motivated to bounce back from a poor loss and beat Adam Gase. I could see this possibly being a blowout but what’s more likely is a low scoring 10 point win, especially since Darnold is back to make his 3 good plays a game.

Dolphins 24-14 Jets

Giants (-6) at Bengals

Another thoroughly dull game here. The Bengals looked to have the stuffing knocked out of them with the loss of Burrow and it’s unlikely that Brandon Allen will be a game changing player. The Giants seem an obvious bet here but I just can’t see them losing this one, they have more motivation to win since the Bengals should be considering losing out for the number 3 pick and the only way they win this is if Jones throws 3 picks or something similar. I’ll take the Giants by a touchdown in a fairly unwatchable game.

Giants 21-14 Bengals

Titans at Colts (-3)

I like the Titans here. They seem to be peaking at the right sort of time and the Colts for me still have a lot of issues. They turn the ball over way too much and the defense starts games terribly. If the Titans get out to the sort of lead that Green Bay did last week then they can just run Henry and let Tannehill game manage. Look for the Colts to use their RBs a lot if the previous matchup between these teams is anything to go by and it will effectively come down to which team dominates in the trenches.

Titans 27-20 Colts

Saints (-15) at Broncos

The Broncos don’t even have a QB for this one in the weirdest game of the season to date. This means they’ll have to rely on the running game and the Saints have the number 2 defense in the league. But I still feel this number may be too high, Denver will know their D will need to step up here and I doubt they’ll expose whoever starts the game for them too much. They’ll just look for long punts and to force a turnover against an inexperienced QB. I think they may be able to score 10 points and I can’t see the Saints getting 25. The Saints will win this game but won’t cover in my eyes.

Saints 20-10 Broncos

49ers at Rams (-6.5)

The Rams have suddenly become everyone’s hipster pick to win the NFC yet are only favoured by 6.5 against an injured 49ers team. The 49ers are getting some guys back and they may actually have some joy on the ground. The Rams are the number 5 rush D in the league but they have only played against 1 or 2 good running backs thus year and no team with as good a running scheme as the 49ers have. But I still like the Rams mainly because I can’t see Nick Mullens doing anything for more than a quarter and the Rams offense seems to be generating more consistency than earlier in the season.

Rams 28-17 49ers

Chiefs (-3.5) at Buccaneers

I feel it’s not mentioned enough that Todd Bowles sucks as a defensive coordinator against the pass. The Bucs play some really soft zone D and I can see Mahomes destroying them if he gets time to throw the ball which I believe will be the case. This is probably going to end up being a shootout since the Bucs will be very motivated for this one and may be making scheme changes with a lot of recent news being about Brady struggling to throw it deep. I still like Kansas to get ahead early and dominate though, Bruce Arians teams tend to turn the ball over and I think this is what will cost the Bucs tonight.

Chiefs 31-24 Buccaneers

Bears at Packers (-9.5)

Mitch Trubisky is back which means everybody will be on the Packers. To be honest though I agree with them here, I think there’s major behind the scenes issues at Chicago right now as they’re being exposed as a bang average team and going to Lambeau on a Sunday night at this time of year usually isn’t an ideal situation. The Packers blew it last week against the Colts so expect them to come out angry here and give the Bears a rough day.

Packers 28-14 Bears

Seahawks (-5.5) at Eagles

I’m surprised this spread isn’t at least 7. The Seahawks D does utterly suck which may be why it’s low but the QB mismatch here is huge and the Seahawks have to start improving defensively at some point so I would hope they would be able to cover the spread here even in potentially hostile conditions at Philadelphia.

Seahawks 27-17 Eagles

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