Bears at Vikings (-3)
On paper these 2 teams are pretty much level in terms of form so the home team being favoured by 3 seems an accurate spread so I’m struggling to find a reason to bet this game. If there’s going to be an edge for either side it would come through the injury report and the Bears do look a bit healthier at the moment with the Vikings missing Kendricks. Another thing to consider is the Vikings are struggling at making field goal kicks so they may end up leaving points on the field which makes me want to lean to the Bears to pull this one off though I’m not confident to bet this since they have players like Mack on the injury report as questionable.
Bears 27-21 Vikings
Lions at Titans (-9)
I quite like Detroit here against this number. In terms of recent stats on defense both teams have been fairly similar with the only outlier being that Detroit have struggled against the run which means Henry is likely to go off again here. But the Titans D has been atrocious in terms of giving up yards as of late and that’s even with a recent matchup against a tanking Jacksonville in there. Detroit do have O-line injuries but the Titans pass rush has been very tame this year so I’m not sure that will be enough to completely stop them from being productive on offense. I do think Tennessee get the win here but I feel this is more likely to be a 1 score game than a 2 score game so I will take Detroit to put up enough points to cover.
Titans 35-28 Lions
Texans at Colts (-7.5)
I actually think this spread should probably be nearer to Colts -6 than 7.5 and getting is a good number so I’m with Houston here. The Colts D has been trash lately, especially against the run and if David Johnson is actually able to have a decent game then the Houston offense will get the balance it’s been lacking all year and will probably play better as a whole. The Houston D does also suck still though so there’s a chance this game turns into a track meet with both teams finding points very easy to come by. In those sort of games, taking an underdog at over 7 points usually tends to work out well so I’ll pick Houston for this one to only lose by a field goal.
Colts 31-28 Texans
Jaguars at Ravens (-13)
If the Jaguars are going to cover here, then they’ll need to have a very good day in the air and I just can’t see that being the case. The Ravens are getting guys back on D and Maryland is a hostile environment to go to in the first place. I think this spread should be nearer to 17 points as the big standout here is that the Jaguars have given up an average of over 200 rushing yards per game for the last 3 weeks and now run into arguably the best rushing team in the entire league. This looks a recipe for an absolute demolition job and even though I expect Jacksonville to score a couple of TDs, I would still expect Baltimore to score 35 points and get the cover easily here.
Ravens 35-14 Jaguars
Patriots at Dolphins (-1)
This is a weird game. The Patriots are strong at running the ball but the Dolphins D has been very good against the run lately while the Dolphins have been good at throwing the ball while the Patriots D has been better against the pass than the run. This makes the game very hard to handicap but I’m leaning New England just because they’ve played slightly better teams recently (outside of last week) and that might mean they’re playing a little better than the stats seem to show. Also sharp money is coming in for them so I’ll take them but won’t bet them.
Patriots 20-17 Dolphins
Seahawks (-6.5) at Washington
It’s tough not to be on Seattle here. Washington are missing Gibson and Smith and with the Seahawks D starting to show some improvement in the statsheet, they should be able to stifle Washington comfortably here. Washington are only middling against the pass and are missing linebackers so will probably be even worse this week meaning Seattle are likely to blow out Washington even if the run game struggles a bit against the stout run D Washington has. I have this spread as probably Seattle -10 so we get some nice value with them and I expect them to have a surprisingly easy win here.
Seahawks 27-13 Washington
49ers (-3) at Cowboys
I’m on the 49ers here. The biggest difference between these teams is that Dallas has been terrible against the run lately and this gives the 49ers a good chance to keep the ball out of Nick Mullens’ hands and control this game. I probably would have it at 49ers -4.5 so -3 isn’t the most amazing number only making this a small bet but they’re also getting a couple of guys back from injuries so that helps things even more. This is unlikely to be the highest scoring of games since neither offense is particularly good and both defenses are playing ok but the 49ers should control it and win.
49ers 21-16 Cowboys
Buccaneers (-6.5) at Falcons
This is an odd one for me now. Before looking at any stats I had the Buccaneers as my best bet of the week but having looked at the stats, I’d have been tempted to switch if Julio Jones was playing, but with him out I still have to like Tampa but not as much as I did before. They’re still terrible against the pass but they do have a good pass rush and Atlanta had major O-line issues last week so there’s a decent chance they can get enough pressure on Ryan to make up for the awful pass D they have. Atlanta are average against the run and pass so it’ll probably be a similar sort of matchup to what they had with the Saints when they got beaten in the Georgia Dome a few weeks ago by them.
Buccaneers 31-21 Falcons
Jets at Rams (-17)
I don’t like betting spreads this high so have very little to say about this game. The Jets have no motivation now on the road and the Rams are likely to stroll through this game. I weirdly like the Jets to cover just because I don’t think the Rams will score that many points. They’ll probably just score 24-27 and go home with an easy win. Darnold tends to make 1 or 2 nice plays a game and with that and their weirdly good opening drive record, I can see them scoring 10 points and covering but there is no way I bet the Jets.
Rams 24-10 Jets
Eagles at Cardinals (-6.5)
I think this spread is near enough right, maybe it should be Arizona -7 so I’ll take them here. The 2 big edges they have in their favour here is that they’ve been a bit better against the pass than Philadelphia lately and have a better quarterback as well so they have that matchup to exploit and the other big one is that they’re actually getting a lot of sacks lately while Philadelphia are giving up a lot of sacks. There’s a decent chance they can rack up 4 or 5 QB sacks and make this a harsh first road trip for Hurts. I doubt that this will be as high scoring as some people may think and I’m going to take Arizona to win this one and cover.
Arizona 27-17 Eagles
Chiefs (-2.5) at Saints
I like New Orleans here and think they should be favoured by around 2. The main weakness of the Saints is the run D and Kansas haven’t exactly been up to much on that front as of late so I doubt they can exploit this weakness. Meanwhile the Saints have become nicely balanced on offense though the return of Brees could lead to a more run and short throw sort of offense which would be main concern for the Saints. Mahomes will obviously do damage and put up points against anyone but the Saints should be able to get some pressure on him hopefully. I’m uneasy about betting against Mahomes in a big game but I’ll take the Saints to win this one at home.
Saints 27-24 Chiefs
Browns (-6.5) at Giants
I’m struggling to find a reason to bet this game. For me it’s just the Browns are a better team and so should win but the Giants D is probably better right now than the Browns D and can keep them in the game which means I might pick New York just because my personal line would be Browns -6. The Browns D does struggle against the run as well so hopefully there won’t be too much need for Colt McCoy to be throwing the ball a lot and making this game ugly for Giants fans.
Browns 24-20 Giants
Steelers (-14) at Bengals
I have little to say about this one. For me the Bengals are now the worst team in the league since they have 0 offense and I’d be surprised if they got to 10 points here. The Pittsburgh offense is fairly anaemic as well and this looks set to be a very boring game which the Steelers will win by anywhere from 10-20 points. I’ll take them to cover here though just because when I’m in doubt it’s usually better to side with the good team.
Steelers 24-7 Bengals
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