Falcons at Chiefs (-10.5)
I think the spread here is pretty spot on, 10 seems the right number but with no Julio or Mack available for the Falcons the Chiefs should have the advantage here. When I’m in a coinflip on spread numbers I like to default to the better team so I’ll take the Chiefs to cover here but this isn’t a game worth betting for me since a Falcons backdoor cover wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Chiefs 28-17 Falcons
Bears (-8) at Jaguars
Yet again this spread feels fairly bang on so I’d look to which team has more recent injuries for who I’m backing. The Bears actually have a couple of corners out and there’s question marks over the health of Allen Robinson and Akeem Hicks. This makes me lean towards Jacksonville getting the cover, I also like this number for Jacksonville since they can lose by a TD and cover. Also Mitchell Trubisky as an 8 point favourite on the road seems steep even with Jacksonville in full tank mode.
Bears 24-20 Jaguars
Bengals at Texans (-7)
I actually like the Bengals to win this outright. The defense has been playing pretty well as of late and minus Watson, there isn’t much to fear about this Houston offense. The Bengals should also be able to establish the run here and with Finley able to use his legs well, he may not have to throw too much here to be able to move the chains. This probably will be an ugly game to watch but I can see something similar to what happened in the Arizona-San Francisco game unfolding here.
Bengals 21-17 Texans
Browns (-6.5) at Jets
I like the Jets to cover here. The Browns have guys out in the COVID protocol and I believe the spread should be Browns -4. The Browns though should thrive in the run game considering the Jets have been giving up 120 yards per game in the last 3 against weaker rushing teams than the Browns. But the Jets play hard on D and can keep the Browns down to 24 at most. I like the Jets to score a couple of TDs and keep the game competitive without ever looking like winning.
Browns 24-20 Jets
Colts at Steelers (-2)
This game completely rides on what Roethlisberger can do. If he plays poorly again like he has lately then the Steelers will have no offense again. The good news for him though is that the Colts secondary is dreadful and the Steelers receivers will be able to get open fairly easily for me. With the Steelers getting guys back from injury as well on defense, they should give Rivers a lot of problems with him missing offensive linemen. I like the Steelers to win by more than a TD here.
Steelers 24-14 Colts
Giants at Ravens (-9.5)
I like the Ravens here to cover fairly comfortably. The Giants have been slightly below average against the run lately which doesn’t bode well here and Daniel Jones is very turnover happy so this is a bad matchup for him to return to even with Baltimore struggling a bit through the air lately. I like Baltimore to score at least 30 again here and the Giants to struggle to get much past 20.
Ravens 35-20 Giants
Panthers at Washington (-1)
Both teams have key injuries which makes this game a hard one to bet. But I am leaning Washington here since both offenses are similar and Washington has a better defense and more to play for. McLaurin being out hurts but the Carolina secondary has been getting torched by everyone lately so even the mediocre backup receivers of Washington should have some joy here. Also being at home should help Washington so I’ll take them to win by 3.
Washington 20-17 Panthers
Broncos at Chargers (-3)
This is another injury bowl that really makes no appeal from a betting front. I’m going to take the Chargers though, they’ve stepped up on D lately while the Broncos D has majorly regressed with all of the recent injuries they’ve picked up. It looks worse now than it did when Herbert put up 30 in the last matchup between these sides so I’d be inclined to say the Chargers can get to 30 again and that should be enough to win here with the recent defensive improvements that have been made.
Chargers 31-24 Broncos
Rams at Seahawks (-1)
In December the rule is usually to take the better defense and in this game the Rams would have the better defense. In addition, they should have success on the ground and have already beat the Seahawks this year. The Rams have played down to bad teams and stepped up against good teams all year so while a lot of people will be on Seattle after the Rams lost to the Jets, I’m taking the Rams to win this one and remind people they’re still a good team.
Rams 21-20 Seahawks
Eagles (-3) at Cowboys
I like the Eagles here. The Cowboys D is still terrible and the Eagles D at least can stop the run which means the Cowboys will be relying on Daton to save the day and I doubt he’ll do that. The Eagles seem to always get hot at the end of the season and I can see that trend continuing in a matchup that should have a lot of offense in it.
Eagles 30-27 Cowboys
Titans at Packers (-3)
This is a real litmus test for both teams. I’m not likely to bet this one just because I’m not sold particularly on either team. The Titans D is absolutely dismal while Green Bay have lost to every half decent team they’ve played since week 3 and struggled against the last good running team they came up against. This is enough for me to pick the Titans to pull this one off. It’ll be a shootout but I trust Henry to dominate this game and the Titans D to force at least 1 turnover here.
Titans 31-27 Packers
Bills (-7) at Patriots
I like the Bills to win but the Patriots to cover. The Patriots suck and are still overrated for me, but they can at least defend the pass and the Buffalo run game isn’t good enough to exploit the awful run defense of the Patriots. This probably makes this game the sort of one where Buffalo goes 10-0 up early and then the Patriots adjust but don’t do enough on offense to get fully back into the game.
Bills 17-13 Patriots