Rams at Packers (-6.5)
This game is really difficult to predict. I expect the Rams D to do a real number on the Green Bay offense with it’s O-line injuries here and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Green Bay struggled to score 20. If the Rams get to Rodgers consistently he could have a real torrid time considering his receivers have tough matchups against a really nice Rams secondary.
Meanwhile the Rams offense feels like it will be reliant on Cam Akers continuing his breakout from last week. They are getting Goff and Kupp a bit fitter this week, but the Green Bay secondary has had a nice year and I like them to shut down the Rams passing game fairly well.
For me, this game comes down to 2 individual matchups, Davante Adams vs Jalen Ramsey and the Packers D-line against the Rams O-line in the run game. Honestly this game feels like a coinflip so I’m going to take the better QB in Rodgers to make a play late and squeak Green Bay home by a field goal.
Packers 20-17 Rams
Ravens at Bills (-2.5)
Despite the Bills winning I was actually really disappointed with how they ended the game last week. They got absolutely torched by outside runs and tight ends running routes across the middle against their linebackers. And guess who they play this week, a team that specialises in outside running from their RBs and QBs and a team that also can happily throw it to their tight ends over the middle for 15 yard gains all day. For me, the Ravens offense will be really hard to stop for the Bills after the first quarter or so and I can see them owning the Bills D in the second half.
Meanwhile, the Bills offense also should fancy their chances in this one. The Ravens are somewhat above average in coverage, but the Bills have a really deep receiving corps and I believe they’ll definitely be able to inflict damage on the Ravens D in this one. The running game will likely be kept quiet though since the Ravens are good against the run and just shut down Derrick Henry, so Singletary will likely do little as a runner though should still be a threat in the passing game.
I like the Ravens to win again here, the Bills seem to be vulnerable in the second half based on what we saw last week and I also like the Ravens D to be more likely to force a turnover at a key point in the game.
Ravens 28-24 Bills
Browns at Chiefs (-10)
I like the Browns at this number though I expect them to lose the game.
The Chiefs offensive line is still missing Mitchell Schwartz and without them being at full strength I can see Cleveland being able to pressure Mahomes and give him plenty to think about. Their defense will have some confidence off their performance last week and I can see them stopping Mahomes a couple of times here. I still expect Kansas to catch them a few times though and for them to score around 28 points in this one with Hill having a big day.
The Browns offense will probably be reliant on having early success running. The Chiefs pass rush for some reason always seems to improve massively around playoff season and I can see them causing Mayfield some problems if he is forced into a lot of obvious passing situations. If Chubb gets going though, the Browns will be able to keep Mahomes off the field and more importantly, keep this game close.
Overall, I’m feeling this is likely to be a 1 score game. I’m not particularly sold that Cleveland pull off the upset here since the Chiefs usually find a way to win and I like them to hold on here and make a stop late to seal the win.
Chiefs 28-24 Browns
Buccaneers at Saints
This game felt like it was destined to happen all season. The Saints have owned the first 2 matchups and I like them to win again here, though it shouldn’t be a blowout this time.
The Saints offense did only score 21 last week, but Thomas will be fresher and the Bears D played out of its skin to keep their offense in the game last week. This time, I like Brees to be able to do a lot more damage against a very suspect pass D and though they may struggle on the ground, I can see Brees throwing for 400 yards here. Kamara will likely be doing in the passing game still and with the emergence of Deonte Harris, the Saints have an embarrassment of weapons against this lacklustre pass D.
The Buccaneers have to block better this time than they did last time they played the Saints and I can see Brady having to release the ball quickly again here to avoid a solid pass rush. The revival of Antonio Brown should give the Bucs more confidence in the passing game this time and I don’t see Brady having another 3 pick day here today, but at the same time I don’t see him having the same success as Brees.
For me, the Saints should still win fairly comfortably. They seem to be on the verge of finding another gear and in this day and age there’s only so far you can go with as terrible a pass D as Tampa has. This is the end of the road for Brady this season in my eyes.
Saints 31-23 Buccaneers