Hey everyone, I’m back again with my NFL picks and previews for week 6. We went 9-5-1 against the spread last week which makes it 2 out of the last 3 weeks now where we’ve had nearly double the number of wins than we’ve had losses against the spread. Hopefully we keep this momentum going and without further ado, here are my picks for week 6 of the NFL season.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -6.5
I like Tampa here provided that Brady is fit. The Eagles D is good against weaker offenses but really struggled against Kansas a couple of weeks ago and I’d say the Tampa offense is a similar level of juggernaut to that offense. I can see them getting to at least 30 points if not more and then it’ll be on Jalen Hurts to keep the Eagles in the game in what should be a positive matchup. The issue is he looked really sloppy last week and if that form continues into this week, the Eagles won’t be able to hang with the Buccaneers in what I expect to be a 10 point win in a high scoring game.
Buccaneers 34-24 Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins (Wembley Game)
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
This game is definitely one to come back to after the injury report but I’m on Miami for now. Tua is now off IR and I expect him to get the start this weekend. If that’s the case then Miami should be more than 3 points better than this Jags team which has found creative ways to lose all season. The Dolphins secondary should be able to force Lawrence into a turnover or 2 and while I expect Jacksonville to have a good performance on the ground, their defense is dreadful and Miami have the receivers to be able to pick it apart. Miami will have too much for Jacksonville here and with a clear coaching advantage to boot, can win this by a touchdown.
Update: I’m sticking with Miami just because I don’t trust Jacksonville at all but this isn’t a game I’d bet with Xavien Howard being out since that really hampers the Dolphins defense.
Dolphins 27-20 Jaguars
Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -3.5
I like the Lions here, they’re getting guys back from injury on the offensive and defensive line and people will be very down on them at the moment since they haven’t won a game yet. But they’ve kept their home games close and managed to keep the Vikings under 20 points last week. The Bengals have a similar offense to the Vikings so with home advantage, the Lions might get their first win of the season here. The Bengals were disappointing for me last week given how injured Green Bay were, Burrow threw a couple of dismal interceptions and they had kicking problems as well, those kicking problems would hurt a lot here in what figures to be a lower scoring game.
Lions 21-17 Bengals
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -4.5
Another one that relies on the injury report but I’m on the Packers here. I’m hoping they get a couple of offensive linemen back and given the Bears D can be beat through the air, I like Green Bay to have a strong day on offense here. The Bears were very good last week with their running game especially not missing a beat with no Montgomery but the Packers D is playing better now and should be able to take advantage of the Bears having a weak offensive line in order to kill off a few drives. I like the Packers to be able to move the ball into scoring range comfortably during this game and get over 25 points which should be enough for a cover.
Packers 26-17 Bears
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Spread: Colts -9.5
I like the Colts to win but the Texans to cover. The Colts picked up a lot of injuries on Monday night which contributed to their collapse and they don’t seem to be able to fully put teams away. The Texans actually played pretty well last week, they got their receivers open and can definitely do enough here to score 20 points. I can’t see the Colts scoring 30 in this one given they’ll likely game control and the Texans run D isn’t the worst so shouldn’t be getting gashed for multiple 30 yard runs in this one. I still struggle to see where the next Texans win is coming from but they are definitely showing some signs of life now and should be competitive in their games.
Colts 28-20 Texans
Washington Football Teams vs Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -7
The theme I’m noticing with Chiefs games is that teams that can turn them over tend to be able to stay close with them and even beat them. Washington are another team that I can see keeping it close with them as they forced a couple of turnovers last week and mainly got turned over by a hail mary. I do expect Kansas to produce a lot of offense in this one since Washington’s secondary is abysmal but I can say the same about Washington. They run and pass the ball well and the Kansas D is still one of the worst in the league and not currently looking like improving. This will be a shootout which may require a late field goal for the Chiefs to win.
Chiefs 30-27 Washington
Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Ravens -3
I’m on the Ravens here. The Chargers D can’t defend the run at all as shown by last week and the Ravens are the best rushing offense in the NFL. I have a feeling the Chargers will have to score on every drive to stay competitive in this game and I can’t see that happening given the Ravens are very good at forcing turnovers in home games. The Chargers will have some success on offense given how well Herbert is playing, but this just figures to be a bad matchup for them on the whole and I like the Ravens a lot here.
Ravens 31-24 Chargers
New York Giants vs LA Rams
Spread: Rams -10.5
I’m on the Rams here. The Giants offense is decimated pretty much beyond repair at this point with the only bright spot who’s fit being Toney and he’ll likely be seeing a lot of Jalen Ramsey this week which will likely see him shut out of the game for a decent chunk. If Daniel Jones is definitely out then we get Mike Glennon starting who has 0 mobility so the Rams pass rush should be able to get to him with no issues and keep the Giants to 14 points max. The Giants D got gashed on all fronts by the Cowboys last week and while I expect them to play hard and make things tough at times on the Rams since they know that they have to carry the team in this one, I still see the Rams popping off a few big plays and getting to around 25 points which should be enough for the cover.
Update: Daniel Jones is fit which should buy the Giants another touchdown in this game, I’m not betting this game since I see it being Rams by 7 or Rams by 10 with the spread now down to Rams -8.
Rams 24-10 Giants
Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings -1
I’m on Minnesota here though I was hoping to get some +3 about them but I guess the sharps agree with me and have pushed them into favouritism. This pick does rely a bit on McCaffrey not being fully fit but I expect him not to be at top gear in this one if he does play and the Vikings D-line should have an edge over the Panthers O-line so they should be able to get to him anyway. Darnold struggled last week and he may not be fully at it again here if the Vikings can get pressure on him. The Vikings offense was unusually subdued last week and they will need to think outside the box here with the Panthers pass rush likely to get in the backfield pretty quickly so screens and quick throws may be the theme of the day here, but Minnesota has more talent on offense than Minnesota and that should be enough to give them the edge here.
Vikings 23-20 Panthers
Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Browns -2.5
I’m on Cleveland here. Looking at the initial depth charts they’ll have a couple of offensive linemen back this week that got hurt recently and that should mean a strong rushing attack against a poor rushing D and time in the pocket to pick apart the Arizona secondary for Mayfield. The Browns offense had a great day last week until injuries overwhelmed them late on and they should bounce back here. The key matchup though will likely be the Cleveland D vs Kyler Murray, the pass rush should be able to get in the backfield but stopping Murray from avoiding pressure is a tough task but I like the Browns to get in the backfield enough to get to him a couple of times here and stall some drives which should be enough for them to win here.
Browns 27-23 Cardinals
New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Dallas -4
This feels like a good opportunity to take on Dallas. New England have a stout run defense which should slow down the most potent part of the Dallas offense and maybe force Prescott into doing things himself more. Also, the New England offense should have some joy this game. They’re becoming a nice offense with a healthy run:pass dynamic and Dallas have been giving up a lot of yards this season which will lead to New England getting a healthy number of points in what may be a lower scoring game. I’m going to take New England to win outright since this looks a good opportunity for an upset but I’m not fully confident on that side of things as I see a Dallas 1 or 3 point win being a definite possibility.
Patriots 24-23 Cowboys
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Broncos -3.5
Both of these teams are starting to hit bumps in the road and this has suddenly turned into a must win game for both teams to help keep their playoff hopes alive. I like the Broncos here though, they figure to run the ball well and their defense is strong enough to keep the Raiders down in what could be a very similar game to the Bears vs Raiders game from last week. The Broncos should run the ball well and if getting to an early lead, can control the clock and look to rush Carr very heavily given that the Raiders lack much of a running game at the moment. This should be a comfortable win for Denver.
Broncos 24-17 Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Steelers -5
I like Seattle to cover here but I’m a little tentative since Geno Smith is a bit of an unknown for me in terms of current form. He looked solid last week but that was against a team that wasn’t prepared to play him in a game that was already dead and this will be more of a true test of his credentials. I do like him to do ok here and generate a couple of scoring drives which should be enough to cover. The Steelers offense is still very poor and Big Ben is a bit inconsistent still despite playing better last week. I can see Seattle keeping them down to 20 points since their defense knows it has to step up and while I expect the Steelers to make enough plays on the defensive side of the ball to win, I see it being more of a game that’s decided by a field goal than being a blowout.
Steelers 20-17 Seahawks
Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -5.5
I like Buffalo here. They currently look the best team in the league and will likely struggle mainly against teams that defend the pass well. Tennessee doesn’t remotely qualify on that front so the Bills should have a strong day on offense and I struggle to see teams scoring more than 25 on the Bills D given the form it’s currently in. Josh Allen will be able to find his receivers with ease and the Titans offense probably needs Jones back as well as Brown and Henry to keep pace but with the Bills stout run D and the uncertainty over Jones, Buffalo has to be the pick for this one.
Bills 31-21 Titans