We’re back with our picks for week 7 of the NFL season. Last week was not ideal, I only went 5-9 ATS but I wasn’t in love with the slate of games. I’m much more confident about the games this week and I hope to continue the tradition of going comfortably over .500 every other week. Without further ado, here are my picks.
*Home teams are denoted on the left hand side of a matchup
Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos
Spread: Browns -2
My Pick:
The Browns are heavily banged up with Mayfield and Chubb out on offense and question marks over the offensive line. If the O-line was fully fit I’d pick Cleveland here but since it’s likely they’re not. I’ll take the Broncos to win a scrappy game. They currently have the edge in talent at receiver and will possess a 1-2 punch at running back unlike Cleveland. I also prefer Teddy Bridgewater to Case Keenum so I’d probably have the line at Broncos -1 at the moment. I’d bet Denver on the money line here if I was playing this game but it’s likely I’ll leave it alone.
Broncos 20-17 Browns
Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -2.5
My Pick:
Miami should really be on a bye here. Usually when teams come back from London they get a week off and it’s unfair that Jacksonville get a bye but they don’t. I like Atlanta here, they’re well rested off a bye and have far less injuries to deal with than the Dolphins. The season feels lost now for Miami after losing to Jacksonville and it may be hard to be motivated for this one given that they had playoff aspirations this season. The Falcons played well against the Jets in London and look much better on offense when they can run the ball effectively, I expect them to do that here given that Miami has a poor run D and they can control this game and get a big road win.
Falcons 27-21 Dolphins
New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers -3
My Pick:
I’m not too enthusiastic about betting this game but if New York got Toney and Golliday back, I’d definitely be on them here. If you ignore the Rams game where injuries made the offense unable to compete, they’ve beaten the Saints, should’ve beaten Washington and choked against the Falcons but only lost by 3. I don’t think Carolina are currently ahead of those teams with no McCaffrey and Darnold enduring a slump so I can see the Giants keeping it close and maybe nicking a win. Carolina might also be a big hungover from the overtime loss against Minnesota but they had no right being that close in a game where they got heavily outgained on offense, they aren’t a good team right now and the Giants can get a rebound win here.
Giants 23-17 Panthers
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Ravens -6
My Pick:
I like the Ravens to win this but the Bengals to cover the spread. Baltimore are likely to be overbet this week after exploiting a perfect matchup against the Chargers but this game will be a lot tougher. The Bengals are better against the blitz than the Chargers and can somewhat defend against the run so it shouldn’t be as easy a day on offense for the Ravens. That being said, Lamar Jackson is playing at the top of his game at the moment and he should be able to put up enough good drives to get to around 27 points since the Bengals secondary can be beat by good teams. I just like the Bengals to hit a couple of big play touchdowns and for them to run the ball effectively in what should be a well balanced game.
Ravens 27-24 Bengals
Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
My Pick:
I’m on the Chiefs here. Chris Jones is coming back at the perfect time to improve their D-line as they face Derrick Henry and the Titans secondary is banged up so it’s hard to not see the Chiefs exploding on offense here. The Chiefs also have extra rest and the Titans are coming off a rollercoaster game they likely threw everything at against the Bills. I like Tennessee to still score a decent amount of points given that the Chiefs have no secondary and Henry will still be somewhat effective since the Chiefs run D will likely only improve from terrible to average with the return of Jones. But I like Kansas to hit the 35 point mark and get a big win here.
Chiefs 35-27 Titans
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Spread: Patriots -7
My Pick:
I actually like the Jets to keep this a close game. They’re far better equipped than last time they faced the Patriots with Wilson having some more experience and getting Crowder in as well as Corey Davis to throw to. The Jets run D has quietly been ok this year and with the Jets coming off a bye in a game they’re likely to be motivated for, I expect them to come out to a big start and get an early lead before the Patriots adjust and go on to win the game. Mac Jones will be able to find his receivers eventually given the Jets have a poor secondary and I can see New England making a second half comeback to win, but not cover the spread.
Patriots 24-20 Jets
Green Bay Packers vs Washington Football Team
Spread: Packers -8
My Pick:
This is another game where I expect the favourite to win, but the line value is with the underdog. The Packers haven’t been blowing out teams this season and 8 seems a high number against a Washington team that are bad, but not a complete dumpster fire. The Washington defense has played better as of late and with the Packers having a couple of offensive linemen on the injury report, the pass rush might have a breakout day here. I do expect Green Bay though to put together some good drives given that Washington are horrible in pass coverage but conversely, Washington should be able to run the ball effectively and do just about enough in the air to get to 20 points. This should be enough for a cover, with a potential comeback win needed from Green Bay to get over the line here.
Packers 24-20 Washington
LA Rams vs Detroit Lions
Spread: Rams -15
My Pick:
I hate tipping games with inflated spreads. My record is really poor in them for some reason but I’m going to try Detroit to cover here. This is a revenge game for both Goff and Stafford and there’s a chance Detroit can keep this close in the early stages and maybe pull out a couple of trick plays to move the ball downfield. I probably need Detroit to have a chance to establish the run for them to cover as if they’re 14-0 down early and forced to throw, you’ll just get a repeat of the Rams and Giants game last week. If they can though, they can keep the ball and eat into the time the Rams have to score the points they need to cover the inflated spread. I can see Detroit getting into field goal range enough times to cover here but I don’t have much confidence in this pick. The Rams on offense will likely be able to throw it easily early and then just ball control with Henderson who might be a nice draftkings play.
Rams 28-16 Lions
LV Raiders vs Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Raiders -3
My Pick:
I like the Eagles a lot here. They should be able to put pressure on Carr with the pass rush, they have a quality tight end to exploit the struggles the Raiders have against the position, and Jalen Hurts will be able to run the ball effectively and have a good game here. The Raiders will probably have a couple of nice drives with Carr connecting over the middle with his receivers but I can see this one turning into a bit of a slugfest and that will favour the Eagles given they’ve had extra rest and the Raiders are coming off an emotional win.
Eagles 23-17 Raiders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears
Spread: Buccaneers -12.5
My Pick:
This is a major day for Justin Fields to prove how good he is. Whether the Bears cover the spread or not depends on how he plays given they won’t be able to run the ball and they’re not well equipped enough on defense to stop this Tampa Bay offense. I see him struggling here given he hasn’t been throwing for high yardages and he’ll struggle to do a lot with his legs. This might be the sort of game where the Bears don’t do anything until garbage time and even then, they probably won’t get enough points to cover through that.
Buccaneers 30-14 Bears
Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans
Spread: Cardinals -17.5
My Pick:
I’m on the Cardinals here. With the Texans missing Larry Tunsil, they won’t be able to block and that will lead to a miserable day for Davis Mills, it’s a shame because he’s not the worst when given time in the pocket and could be a viable backup at a team that can block. Unfortunately for him, he’s leading the tank for the Texans and with the defense looking unable to stop anything last week, it’ll be a case of whether Arizona are resting starters by the 3rd quarter or if the Texans can keep it close enough to go into the 4th. Personally, I see this being a total blowout where the Texans only score a TD on their last drive.
Cardinals 31-10 Texans
San Francisco 49ers vs Indianapolis Colts
Spread: 49ers -4
My Pick:
I like the 49ers here. Kittle and Samuel have had a break to get to full fitness and that should help against a bad secondary. Jimmy G is back as well which should reduce the turnovers and when he’s well protected, he should be able to put enough points here to get a comfortable win. The issue for the Colts on offense is that they’ll be down 2 starting offensive linemen against a strong defensive front. This may lead to them getting stifled plenty on offense and while I expect Jonathan Taylor to have a nice day, I don’t see them scoring enough points to get the cover here.
49ers 24-17 Colts
Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -4.5
My pick:
I like the Saints here. Seattle needs to establish the run to have any chance of performing on offense and with the Saints currently having the best run D on yards per carry in the league despite playing some good running teams, it’s hard to see that happening here. The Saints have been solid but not amazing on offense but seem to be able to hit a few deep passes a game and with Kamara running the ball against a below average run D, they can control this game and get the win by a couple of scores.
Saints 24-14 Seahawks
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