Hey everyone, I’m back for week 8 of the NFL season. Last week was frustrating as we ended up being just below .500 ATS. I’m hoping for a solid rebound this week and there are a few plays I like this week. Without further ado, here are my picks for week 8 of the NFL season.
Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers
Spread: Cardinals – 6.5
My Pick:
I like the Cardinals to win but the Packers to cover. Both teams should be able to run the ball efficiently given that the defenses in this game are both giving up 5 yards per carry and while Adams being out hurts the Packers, I don’t believe it justifies a 3 point spread move given that Rodgers always tends to find an alternate target and the fact that running should be an option in this game for the first time in a while for the Packers. The Packers do have injuries on defense though, this should mean that Murray has a solid day and even though he may take a couple of sacks that end drives, he should be able to put up enough drives to get to 28 points and that should be enough for the win.
Cardinals 28-24 Packers
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
Spread: Falcons -3
My Pick:
This is one of those lines that seems suspiciously low but I actually like the Panthers here. They get Stephen Gilmore in which immediately improves the secondary and the Falcons are weak at rushing the passer. The Panthers have struggled immensely the last few weeks due to playing teams with strong pass rushes so maybe this matchup should show Darnold in a better light, if he has a shocker here then it’s probably time to write him off as a failed experiment. The Falcons will make some plays in the passing game if Ryan is given time to throw but that’s a big if given the Panthers have been excellent at rushing the passer this season. I can see the Panthers dominating in the trenches and winning this game outright.
Panthers 24-17 Falcons
New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -10.5
My Pick:
I’m on the Bengals here. The Jets have to play Mike White and his coaching staff clearly have little confidence in him given they just threw checkdowns when he was on the field last Sunday. The Bengals are coming off a dominant performance in Baltimore and have shown they’re more than happy to keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes in blowouts based on the last 2 weeks so I’m not worried about a backdoor cover here. They have a plethora of weapons for Burrow to throw to and the Bengals D-line should stop the Jets from doing much in this one.
Bengals 27-10 Jets
Houston Texans vs LA Rams
Spread: Rams -16
My Pick:
For the Texans to have any chance of covering the spread, they need to be able to get to Stafford on D otherwise they’ll get torched by the Rams offense. Unfortunately for them, the Rams have had the least sacks against them of any team in the league so I see this being a long day for Houston. Stafford will be able to find his receivers with ease given time in the pocket and Davis Mills is clearly not an NFL calibre QB so I wouldn’t expect the Texans to get more than 10 points. It’s an inflated spread, especially on the road but the Rams should cover as they need the win to tie with Arizona in the divisional standings.
Rams 31-6 Texans
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
Spread: Bills -14
My Pick:
This isn’t a game I’d bet but I’m taking the Bills. I just feel Miami either come out completely flat since the loss last week killed off their season or they come out and do what Detroit did to the Rams last week with trick plays and fake punts and just throw the entire playbook at this game. But the most likely result here is that Buffalo dominate in the trenches and control this game since they’ve had a week off and Miami have a busier injury report than the Bills. I doubt this game will be a thriller and Buffalo can cover.
Bills 28-13 Dolphins
Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -3.5
My Pick:
I can see Detroit getting their first win of the season here. The Eagles D is quietly really bad, despite people getting hyped up about them for a couple of performances against NFC South teams that can’t block they were demolished by the Raiders last week. Detroit defensively have been horrible against the pass all year but I feel Hurts is just too inconsistent, if he put a full 60 minutes together, the Eagles will likely win by 10 but he tends to disappear for at least 2 quarters every game so I can’t trust the Eagles to generate consistent offense. The Lions can lean on Swift to carry the offense and I like them to get near to 25 points and get the win here.
Lions 24-21 Eagles
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Browns -4
My Pick:
I like Cleveland here. They’re getting guys back on offense like Mayfield, Chubb and Conklin which should make them a much stronger unit in this one and help negate the strength of the Steelers which is their D-line. The Browns do have some injuries in the secondary but Roethlisberger hasn’t got the arm strength for Pittsburgh to beat Cleveland deep and I see the Steelers struggling to handle the pass rush of the Browns. I don’t think this will be a high scoring game so taking favourites to cover spreads can sometimes be dangerous but 4 points seems a fair number to take here.
Browns 24-14 Steelers
Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -4
My Pick:
I like the Bears here. You’re getting 4 points at home against a bad team. The Tampa Bay game last week was obviously a disaster but the Bucs were just a nightmare matchup for the Bears since they have an elite run D and a strong offensive line. The 49ers do have a decent O-line but the Bears will get Hicks back so should generate pressure and the 49ers run D is only average so Herbert can have a nice day in this one. This will likely be a close and low scoring game but home advantage can see the Bears through to an upset win. The 49ers will need to rely on their D getting to Fields which they should do a couple of times and Garoppolo not turning the ball over which I don’t trust him with.
Bears 20-14 49ers
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Spread: Colts -2.5
My Pick:
This feels like a good spot to bet the Colts. The average person will be on the Titans yet the line is still moving in favour of the Colts which indicates sharp money. They have a better injury report than the Titans unlike the last matchup and they managed to keep the Titans down to 25 points on the road. I can see them forcing turnovers from Tannehill and they can somewhat keep a lid on Henry though I still expect him to have a decent day. The Titans D isn’t an elite unit and if Wentz doesn’t do anything stupid there should be opportunities to torch them in this one. I like the Colts to control this game and win by a touchdown.
Colts 31-24 Titans
Seattle Seahawks vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Seahawks -3.5
My Pick:
This is the sort of game I wouldn’t go anywhere near on a betting front. The Seahawks offense and the Jaguars D are 2 of the worst units in the league at the moment and seeing them face off will likely be a painful experience. I’d want to bet the Jaguars but betting them on the road in the last 2 years has been a depressing experience for anyone who has bothered. I’m going to pick them here though, Lawrence is a far superior QB to Smith, they’ve come off a win they desperately needed to end a losing streak and they’ve had a bye week while Seattle played on Monday night in a slugfest. I’m just hoping that Smith is so bad that the Jags D can keep Seattle under 20 and that Lawrence doesn’t give away a back breaking turnover.
Jaguars 20-17 Seahawks
LA Chargers vs New England Patriots
Spread: Chargers -4.5
My Pick:
I like the Patriots to win this outright. Bellichick is very good at building running gameplans and the Chargers D is horrible against the run. He also destroyed Herbert last year when the Chargers lost 52-0 to the Patriots and while I expect him to have a better day here, I still expect there to be a couple of turnovers in this game from the Chargers. Meanwhile Jones should have a nice enough day though will face some pressure from the pass rush of the Chargers, but Jones has a wide range of receivers he can find and should find some holes in the Chargers secondary when needed. This will be more competitive than last year but I like the Patriots to win.
Patriots 27-24 Chargers
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Bucs -4.5
My Pick:
This is one of those spreads that feels suspiciously low and teams that have had suspiciously low spreads have tended to cover them. If you watched the Saints on Monday you wouldn’t expect them to compete with Tampa, even at home. But I’m taking the Saints here more as a shot in the dark than as someone who’s expecting a result. I like Winston to be extremely fired up for this one given he’s facing his old team and the Bucs secondary can definitely be beat deep so I expect the Saints to be able to do that. I also like Kamara to have a nice day as a receiving threat. Tampa will likely have a pretty potent day on offense as well with this being comfortably the best offense the Saints have faced and there’s some question marks about the New Orleans secondary. I can see the Saints getting to Brady a couple of times though to kill the odd drive. I like Tampa to score a late field goal to win and for New Orleans to cover.
Bucs 27-24 Saints
Denver Broncos vs Washington Football Team
Spread: Broncos -3
My Pick:
This is another game that feels trappy but I’m taking Washington. They outgained the Packers and just had some horrible luck in the redzone or they could easily have won last week. The Broncos are missing multiple linebackers and potentially Von Miller so will not be able to rush Heinecke and if given time in the pocket, the Washington offense is a solid unit and probably better than the Broncos offense. The Broncos should have more offense this week than last time since Jeudy is coming back and Bridgewater has had some time to get healthy again but the Washington pass rush is finding its grove now and can slow down what is still a fairly average offense. I like Washington to win outright in this one.
Washington 24-17 Broncos
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Vikings -3
My Pick:
The line has moved heavily towards Minnesota as Prescott is expected to be out but I’m betting Dallas here. The Vikings can’t defend the run and the Cowboys D knows how to force turnovers. I can see Cousins coughing up the ball a couple of times and even if Cooper Rush plays for Dallas, they’ll be able to generate enough offense here to probably win this game between running and the receivers making a couple of plays here and there. I do expect Minnesota to have some offense since Cousins has played at an extremely high level this year and Cook should have a nice day, but Dallas will win the turnover battle, and with it the game.
Cowboys 27-24 Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Giants
Spread: Chiefs -10
My Pick:
I’m taking the Chiefs to win and cover, this feels like desperation territory for them and they have home advantage in this one. Their defense is obviously horrible but the Giants don’t have the pieces on offense to fully take advantage of that and I can only see them getting to 20 at max even with how bad the Chiefs have been on D. The Giants also have a hole at linebacker and the Chiefs have plenty of guys who can exploit the middle of the field, they’ll likely just be too high tempo for the Giants to hang with and this can be a bit of a blowout.
Chiefs 34-17 Giants
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