NFL Week 10 Picks

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -7.5

My Pick: 

The Ravens will probably win this game but I could see it being quite squeaky for them. Teams that go to OT on a Sunday and then play on a Monday have historically struggled against the spread in the past and with their defense being poor this year, I can see them letting Miami stay in the game for too long. Both offenses have very good matchups here, Miami has a below average run D and have given up a lot of yards to wide receivers this year so Jackson is set to have a big day while Baltimore are awful against tight ends and running backs so I’d expect Gesicki and Gaskin to have good days though that does depend on the play calling of Miami which has been poor at times this season. I can see this one being a bit of a shootout with the Ravens doing enough to win by 4.

Ravens 28-24 Dolphins

Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Cowboys -9

My Pick:

I think this spread is a bit too inflated again. Matt Ryan looks to be in top form after last week and the Cowboys really struggled against Teddy Bridgewater last week who is a lesser quarterback than Ryan. The Cowboys have quietly given up a lot of aerial yards as of late and even though the Falcons don’t have a great pass catching unit, they can do enough here to put up consistent points. But the Cowboys also figure to have a better day on offense than last week, the Falcons are good against the run but struggle with pass catching RBs and they also tend to go through phases in games where they get torn up by receivers so I’d expect the Cowboys to have a lot of big plays in this one and score a healthy amount of points. For me this is another case of favourite wins but underdog covers.

Cowboys 31-24 Falcons

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -12

My Pick:

I’m sticking with my theory of picking home teams to cover inflated spreads. Historically when the Jets have been tanking over the past few years, they’ve played teams close at home and gotten blown out on the road. The Jets D has been horrible against running backs and tight ends this year but the Bills don’t really have good players in those positions, they’ve been poor at running the ball all season and Dawson Knox is coming back from an injury so may need a week before being at full strength. I think the Bills will produce some offense since the Jets D is poor but I can’t see them scoring a huge amount of points. The Bills D has been nothing short of outstanding this year and it’s really hard to see how the Jets generate any offense, maybe they could do something over the middle of the field if Tremaine Edmunds is out but it figures to be a tougher day for Mike White after his heroics against the Bengals. I’ll take the Jets to cover but this is not a confident pick.

Bills 24-14 Jets

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns

Spread: Patriots -2.5

My Pick:

This game is effectively a coin flip, both teams are very similar statistically and have had a similar standard of schedule throughout the year. I’d imagine it could be a lower scoring game with both teams likely to be able to get through to the quarterback, the Patriots possessing a strong run D but having injuries on the running side of the ball. I’m going to take the Browns though as they’re more healthy than the Patriots as a whole right now and that we’re getting underdog value in a game that should probably be a pick em line. This isn’t a confident pick, but I like taking the underdog in this sort of spot.

Browns 21-20 Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Detroit Lions

Spread: Steelers -9

My Pick:

This initially felt like an inflated spread to me, but I don’t think it is now. The Steelers match up extremely well here given the Lions are woeful against the run so Najee Harris can carry the Steelers offense and set up easy passing downs for Big Ben. The Steelers are also solid against running backs so should force Goff to throw the ball a lot behind a suspect O-line. This just feels like it’s going to be a rough day for Detroit, even having had an extra week’s rest for this one. The Steelers can stifle the Lions and win in a blowout.

Steelers 27-10 Lions

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Colts -10.5

My Pick:

Both teams have been weak against passing attacks this year but I like this matchup more for the Colts than the Jaguars. The Jaguars have a horrible receiving corps who can’t catch a ball so I can’t see them exploiting the weakness of the Colts and with James Robinson out injured, it’s tough to see them generating any offense against a solid defense. The Colts should be able to generate offense meanwhile with their strong blocking and their solid running game. The only problem for me with taking this spread is that Carson Wentz and the coaching staff can be very kamikaze and they might put their defense in a hole or 2 at times with bad offensive plays. That being said, the Colts are a far superior team to the Jags and they know they need to get on a run now before their playoff hopes disappear this season.

Colts 27-14 Jaguars

Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints

Spread: Titans -3

My Pick:

This game looks to be one that will be decided through the air, both defenses have been stout against the run this season and mediocre against the pass. For me this game boils down to whether or not I think Ryan Tannehill is more than 3 points better than Trevor Siemian. On current form my answer is actually no, Tannehill has been turning the ball over excessively as of late while Siemian has no turnovers in 2 games and he’s been getting let down by his receivers dropping catches lately. I think if the Saints sharpen up on their catching then they can win this game, they also have Kamara out of the backfield who should have a big day in this one receiving the ball. This game may not be a classic, but the Saints can get the win.

Saints 24-20 Titans

Washington Football Team vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -9

My Pick: 

Both teams project to have more success through the air than on the ground and I think this sort of matchup heavily favours Tampa. Their passing offense is a juggernaut and Washington have been horrible defending the pass all year, it should be a case of Brady just choosing who he wants to throw touchdowns to. Meanwhile, Washington also should have some nice games through the air but I’m starting to worry about Taylor Heinicke, he’s not well protected and has turned into a bit of a turnover machine recently while struggling to rack up high yardages, he should rip a big play off occasionally here, but I see the turnovers catching up to him and making this game a bit of a blowout.

Bucs 34-17 Washington

Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers

Spread: Cardinals -10.5

My Pick:

I can’t believe the spread is this high. I get that Murray is back and that James Conner played well last week, but this figures to be a look ahead spot for Arizona now they have a comfortable division lead and they face a division rival next week. The Panthers D has been superb all season minus 1 game and though Darnold has had a nightmare season, the Cardinals are vulnerable to the run so Christian McCaffrey figures to have a big day out here now he’s back from injury. I still expect Arizona to win as Carolina are likely to turn the ball over throwing it but I see this being more of a slugfest than a blowout win.

Cardinals 20-17 Panthers

LA Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Chargers -3

My Pick:

I like the Chargers here, they’re the better team and Minnesota have struggled to stop QBs all year. This means the Chargers should be able to bring out their dynamic passing game in full. The Vikings will likely lean on Dalvin Cook in this one given the continued struggles against the run that the Chargers have and will also score plenty of points here. But the Chargers should be able to get to Cousins a couple of times with their strong pass rush and Cousins tends to fumble the ball a lot so I can see a turnover coming from this route. This will likely be a high scoring game but I expect the Chargers to control this game all the way through.

Chargers 34-27 Vikings

Denver Broncos vs Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Broncos -2.5

My Pick:

This is a game I most likely won’t be betting. These teams are pretty much even and while the Broncos have a clear coaching advantage, they also have more players injured than the Eagles. I guess in these sorts of games you get 3 points for being the home team so we’re getting some line value with Denver here. I’m hoping the coaching edge can overcome the injury issues and they played their best game of the season last week, maybe guys are stepping up now Von Miller is out. The Broncos should get some first downs running but not too many given that the Eagles run D has stepped up as of late, they are weak to tight ends though and Noah Fant comes back this week so maybe he has a good game if he’s ready to go. I’m struggling to see where the Eagles generate offense, they may be best served using their running backs as receivers but they haven’t shown any tendency to do that. I’m taking Denver in a low scorer.

Broncos 14-10 Eagles

Green Bay Packers vs Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Packers -3.5

My Pick:

This depends on if Rodgers or Jordan Love plays. If Rodgers plays I’ll be on the Packers heavily, if he doesn’t I’d say this line works better as a pick’em. The Seahawks get Russell Wilson back this week but this season has shown that the first game back from injury for QBs tends to be a disaster (Taylor and Prescott last week are examples) and while I don’t expect Wilson to drop a complete no-show, I can see him being off his game a bit. Both teams should look to run the ball as neither side is great against the run but the Packers have a clear edge here, Aaron Jones is easily the best RB on the field and figures to have a big day here. I’m taking Green Bay on the expectation Rodgers plays but may change this pick as news comes out.

Packers 24-17 Seahawks

LV Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -2.5

My Pick:

This spread is also wrong in my eyes. I haven’t seen anything this season that tells me the Chiefs are a better team than the Raiders at the moment yet they’re favourites on the road against them. The Raiders had a bad day at the office last week and even then they made a lot of yards, they got hassled by a high quality pass rush but Kansas definitely doesn’t have that. The Raiders should be able to throw and run the ball efficiently here and have a good day on offense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will struggle to throw the ball deep here, the Raiders have one of the best pass Ds when it comes to yards per attempt but the Chiefs may have some success on the ground if they commit more to that side of the game. I like the Raiders to win straight up by a field goal.

Raiders 27-24 Chiefs

San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams

Spread: Rams -4

My Pick:

This spread feels like a trap but I’m still taking the Rams. They’re a better team than the 49ers who really struggled on defense last week against the run and even if Stafford isn’t fully fit right now, he might not have to do too much to be able to win this game since the Rams should be able to run the ball here. The Rams do seem to have a bit of a weakness to tight ends though so maybe Kittle can have a big day for the 49ers. The Rams will need to generate pressure to win this one but with Von Miller likely to play here and the 49ers picking up an O-line injury last week, I’d expect the Rams to be able to get to the QB and pick up the win here.

Rams 23-17 49ers 

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