NFL Week 4 Picks

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Spread: Bengals -4

My Pick:

I’m keen on the Bengals here. Their Achilles heel has been that Joe Burrow has been constantly getting sacked this year but that shouldn’t happen this game as Miami has the worst pressure rate in the league. Miami also has been giving up 5 yards per carry to the run this season so I expect the Bengals offense to have a very good day here. Miami do have a set of receivers that can blow the top off a defense but I have concerns about Tua being injured (even if he plays he likely won’t be at 100%) and the Bengals have a good enough pass rush to give him issues and force bad decision. I expect a surprisingly comfortable Bengals win.

Bengals 28-17 Dolphins

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -2.5

My Pick:

This will be the first London game of the year. Historically London games have been won easily by the team that would be classed as better but this one looks to be an even matchup. I like the Saints a lot though, they are strong against the run and they have Lattimore to shut down Jefferson, Minnesota doesn’t have a lot of receiving talent outside of that and I can’t see them scoring a lot of points. The Saints meanwhile did get a lot of yards against Carolina last week and I like their deep throwing game against a Vikings secondary that gives up nearly 11 yards per completion. I expect the Saints to control this game and win by a touchdown.

Saints 24-17 Vikings

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -3.5

My Pick:

This is one of the tougher games to pick for me this week. I fully expect the Bills to do a lot of damage on offense given the Ravens D gives up a lot of yards and is very turnover reliant to stop teams. But the Bills have turned it over 5 times in 3 games so I can see Baltimore getting a couple of more here. The Ravens offense will have to be carried by Jackson as the Bills have been excellent against the run so far this season barring 1 drive against Tennessee, but he’s playing at such a level that I can see him keeping them in this game. I’ll take the Bills to have too much in the end but to only win by 3.

Bills 30-27 Ravens

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears

Spread: Giants -3.5

My Pick:

This isn’t a game I particularly want to bet on. Both teams will need to rely on the running game to generate any sort of offense and both teams have poor run defenses so it likely will be a case of whoever scores first can control the game. The sharp money seems to be coming in for the Giants so I’ll take them to win by 6 in what will likely be a game full of running and poor QB play.

Giants 20-14 Bears

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -1.5

My Pick:

I’m going to take the Falcons in this one. Both teams are pretty evenly matched in offensive and defensive production and I’d argue that the Falcons have had a harder schedule than the Browns so far. The Falcons being at home would normally give a 1 point edge so my number would be Falcons -2 for this game. The Browns defense has been surprisingly underwhelming with only 7 sacks and 3 turnovers in 3 games all while giving up a lot of yards and the Falcons have shown to have a balanced offense with good playmakers in London, Pitts and Patterson who can have good days in this one. The Browns will also have joy on offense, especially in the running game and I can see a shootout in this one.

Falcons 28-26 Browns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Eagles -6.5

My Pick:

I expect the Eagles to win this one but I like Jacksonville to cover. The Eagles will likely have success with their deep passing game but they’ll have a tougher time running the ball on the Jags defense which has done well on that front in the last couple of weeks while Jacksonville will likely have most of their success on the ground and that will help Lawrence in the passing game, also Jacksonville have allowed the least sacks of any team so far this season so don’t be surprised if they have a good offensive showing and keep this game close.

Eagles 24-21 Jaguars

Houston Texans vs LA Chargers

Spread: Chargers -5

My Pick:

I think people are overreacting to the Chargers losing to Jacksonville last week. They had a huge number of injuries and a QB who was clearly not fit. They get Keenan Allen, JC Jackson and Corey Linsley back this week which is huge for them and the Texans D has been lucky to play 3 poor offenses so far this season. I expect them to get exposed this week and though the Texans could have success running the ball, I can’t see Mills playing well enough to keep up with Herbert. The Chargers should win this easily.

Chargers 27-17 Texans

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets

Spread: Steelers -3.5

My Pick:

This is another game I have no interest in betting. Both offenses are really poor which by standard logic means you should bet the underdog but I’m actually going to take Pittsburgh in this one for a couple of reasons. Firstly, their defense plays far better at home than on the road and they know Flacco from his time at Baltimore and also the Steelers have forced 4 more turnovers than the Jets so far this season which indicates they could get a pick 6 or at least shorter fields to work with. This game will be ugly but I’ll take the Steelers to scrape a cover in this one.

Steelers 20-14 Jets

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Lions -4.5

My Pick:

I have no interest in betting this game. Detroit for me when fully fit are around 8 points better than Seattle but they’ll be missing Swift and St Brown won’t be fully fit. I still believe they’re good enough to have success on offense given they have capable reserves and the Seattle D has been terrible so far this season, they rely on their pass rush but Detroit have an elite O-line so they should have no issues moving the ball. Seattle also project to do well offensively, Detroit ship a lot of second half points and Seattle will likely have success on the ground and they’ve been strong against the blitz so far this season. I can see this being high scoring but I’ll take Detroit to cover given they’re 3-0 ATS this season.

Lions 30-24 Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Spread: Colts -3.5

My Pick:

I’m going to take the Colts here. I don’t feel massively comfortable due to the Titans dominating this rivalry in recent years but the Colts do match up well. The Titans have one of the worst run defenses in the league so far so I expect Taylor to have a good game and while Ryan has been awful so far this season, he’s usually seen to best effect in the play action game. Meanwhile, the Colts are stout against the run so the Titans will struggle to establish Henry and while they should have success throwing the ball, I’d expect Tannehill to turn the ball over at some point. I’ll take the Colts by 10.

Colts 27-17 Titans

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

Spread: Dallas -3

My Pick:

I don’t feel amazing about betting Dallas as a favourite, but they’re the right side for me. In my opinion, Washington are a bottom 3 team in the league, they need to be able to generate a pass rush to win games and the Cowboys O-line has held up well this season and will improve with Jason Peters, I expect Dallas to be able to run a balanced offense and take apart a dreadful secondary. Washington meanwhile will have to deal with another defense that loves getting to the QB and Wentz is dreadful when under pressure. I can see this being a blowout first half again with Washington maybe making it respectable in the second half. I’ll take Dallas by 6.

Cowboys 23-17 Commanders

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Panthers -1.5

My Pick:

This isn’t a game I want to bet due to the fact that these teams have 2 of the worst coaches in the league. My line would be a pick em so I guess we get some value with Arizona. Their defense has improved since week 1 due to players returning and they’ve held better teams than the Panthers to low totals as of late, that being said the Panthers D is also excellent so this looks like it will be a low scoring game. Kyler Murray is a better QB than Baker Mayfield and that can make the difference in an ugly one.

Cardinals 17-16 Panthers

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

Spread: Raiders -2.5

My Pick:

This spread feels like it’s completely wrong. The Broncos for me are definitely a better team than the Raiders and I’d expect them to be the 3 point favourites yet the Raiders are. The Broncos played an elite defense last week and did finally score a redzone TD and with the Raiders D being poor against the pass, this might be the week the floodgates finally open. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos D line has an excellent matchup here and Carr has proven that he can be turnover happy when he has pressure on him, the Raiders may have some success on the ground but their coaching staff don’t seem to want to run the ball a lot. Being able to back Broncos moneyline here looks the way to go as you only need them to win so Hackett’s awful game management won’t stop them from covering a number if they were a favourite.

Broncos 24-14 Raiders

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

Spread: Packers -9.5

My Pick:

I think this spread is a little too high. The Packers aren’t an offensive juggernaut and the Patriots are solid against running backs. That leaves Rodgers relying more than he’d like on his questionable receiving corps and while I like the Packers to do enough against a slightly underwhelming New England secondary, I can see them scoring only 21 points or so. New England meanwhile should have success with their running game and that should be good enough to let them have a decent time of possession and score a couple of touchdowns to keep this defeat down to 7 points.

Packers 21-14 Patriots

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -2

My Pick:

This game may not happen due to the hurricane in Florida so don’t bet it until on the day. I imagine there’ll be an emotional aspect for this game and Tampa will likely play harder than usual due to the events going on at the moment. I’m going to take them to win here, both defenses should defend well against the run but are blitz heavy and both QBs are excellent against the blitz. I believe both teams are even and that the line should be Tampa -1 with Evans returning, with the extra emotional aspect on top of that, I’ll take them by 3 against a Chiefs team that could have more special teams issues.

Buccaneers 20-17 Chiefs

San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams

Spread: 49ers -1.5

My Pick:

I personally had this game as 49ers -2 so I’ll be picking them here but it’s not a confident pick. Their pass rush figures to do well against a Rams team with a left tackle injury and that have struggled to score points against 2 teams that are good at getting to the QB. I expect a lack of success on the ground as well for the Rams so the offense feels like Kupp or bust, he’ll make a play or 2 but I struggle to see them getting much more than 14 points. The 49ers should be able to take advantage of the Rams having injuries in their secondary with the receiving weapons they have and Jimmy G is usually pretty good at home, they should also run the ball reasonably well and they can get the job done here.

49ers 21-14 Rams

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