Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Ravens -1.5
My Pick:
This feels like a trap spread but I’m still taking the Ravens here. The Buccaneers should have more success in this game on offense though they will need to throw the ball a lot here, but I can’t get it out of my head how their defense is being gashed by the run and the Ravens are an excellent running team, with the Bucs having terrible offensive play calling and the Ravens likely to be in a position to control this game on the ground, it’s hard to not pick Baltimore here.
Ravens 24-17 Buccaneers
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -3
My Pick:
Both teams are struggling at the moment. The Broncos have bad QB play and poor coaching while the Jags have Lawrence in a slump and also may be poorly coached. The game feels like it should be a Jaguars -1 spread on neutral ground, the teams are well matched but Denver has a better pass rush while Jacksonville has an emerging running game. I’m actually tempted to take the upset in this one purely because there is value with Denver at the moment. Maybe this is the week they can adopt a run first offense successfully and use their elite D to win them a game.
Broncos 20-17 Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings -3.5
My Pick:
This is a tough one to call, the Vikings are a fraudulent team but the Cardinals have terrible coaching. Both secondaries are extremely suspect so this game will be won by the team that throws it better. I’m going to give the edge to the Vikings, I like Cousins at home over Murray on the road and the Vikings have been better at getting to the QB than the Cardinals have this season. I’ll take the coaching mismatch and better pass rush to win by 6.
Vikings 30-24 Cardinals
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -4.5
My Pick:
This is a tough one to pick, the Falcons have injuries in the secondary but I don’t believe PJ Walker is good enough to exploit them fully. But the Falcons also may struggle on offense a bit here, Carolina is weaker to the air than the ground and the Falcons aren’t a good passing offense. This feels not miles away from being an even matchup so I’ll take a Carolina cover, but the home advantage and the Falcons needing a win more than the Panthers makes me believe the Falcons find a way to win.
Falcons 20-17 Panthers
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -9.5
My Pick:
The spread has dipped below 10 due to the Bears getting a surprise blowout win on Monday night and I believe this is good news for us as I’m on the Cowboys here. They have a much better run D than New England at the moment which should force the Bears to pass the ball more than ideal which opens up room for the NFL leading team in sacks to cause mayhem here. I can see a few turnovers occurring and that should open up the door for a cover. The Cowboys probably won’t do tons on offense but I can see them leading 1 long TD drive and they’re likely to have short fields to work with during this one, they can run the ball, be efficient and win this in a blowout.
Cowboys 27-10 Bears
LV Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Spread: Raiders -2
My Pick:
There’s no coaching mismatch here as I don’t like either coach so this game should be decided on merit. The spread actually feels pretty fair, both offenses are strong and the Raiders have a slightly better defense. There isn’t much to choose between these sides but I’m taking the Raiders. They seem to be getting into a bit more of a groove and they have more game winners in their team than the Saints do. It’s not a confident pick but I’ll take the Raiders by 4.
Raiders 31-27 Saints
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions
Spread: Dolphins -3
My Pick:
The Lions were really disappointing last week, a coaching blunder, a poor interception call and a 1 yard line fumble cost them dearly in a winnable game. The Dolphins meanwhile eked out a win in a game with some questionable coaching decision against the Steelers so I’m not particularly high on either team right now. I’m going to take Detroit though, their main defensive weakness is against the run and the Dolphins are a horrible running team. I can see the Dolphins scoring a couple of deep touchdowns but I can see the Lions doing the same against a team that can’t get pressure on the QB. The Dolphins as 3 point favourites on the road feels wrong with a trenches disadvantage and I’ll take the Lions to win this one.
Lions 27-24 Dolphins
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Spread: Patriots -1.5
My Pick:
I don’t believe people have fully adjusted to the fact the New York Jets might now be a good team. To be honest, I don’t even see this as a major coaching mismatch in favour of New England and with the Patriots having a poor run defense, the Jets can definitely win this one. They can carry on with their run hard and play good defense strategy against a rookie QB and with home advantage, I’ll take them to get the win.
Jets 24-17 Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -10.5
My Pick:
Mike Tomlin can cover big numbers as an underdog but this tends to happen more at home than on the road and it’s tough to see the Steelers being competitive in this one, they have a banged up secondary against an excellent passing offense and they lack the running game to take advantage of the weakness of the Eagles defense. This should be a blowout.
Eagles 31-14 Steelers
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Spread: Titans -1.5
My Pick:
So I get that the Titans don’t score lots of points so they won’t ever be favoured by a big number, especially on the road. But this spread is too low for me. This is a coaching mismatch and the Texans have a poor run D, Derrick Henry got going again last week and this may be the game where his season really starts to breakout. The Titans aren’t great against the pass but they have a decent pass rush and they should be able to restrict the Texans enough here to win this game by at least a field goal.
Titans 24-20 Texans
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -3
My Pick:
This is the first time in a few weeks where the Giants haven’t had a coaching mismatch in their favour. This feels more like a real litmus test for them and I expect them to cover, but lose in a heartbreaker. The Seahawks will run the ball a lot against a terrible run D and while the Giants will also have success moving the ball down the field, the Seahawks have started to play bend but don’t break defense and with home advantage, I’d make the spread Seattle -1. So I’ll take the Seahawks by 1 point.
Seahawks 24-23 Giants
San Francisco 49ers @ LA Rams
Spread: 49ers -1.5
My Pick:
I’m taking the Rams here. They have the better coach coming off the bye week, the defenses are fairly evenly matched and the only major concern I have about the Rams is their bad running game. But with home advantage and the coaching mismatch as well as a fitter Matt Stafford, they have the players to eke out a win in a must win game for them.
Rams 24-21 49ers
Washington Commanders @ Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts -3
My Pick:
I’m on the Colts here. They’re a much better team than the Commanders and I like what I see about Sam Ehlinger, he’s mobile and has good pocket awareness. He isn’t the best deep thrower but the Commanders have a garbage secondary and won’t take advantage of that. The Colts will surely run the ball better soon as well and I can see them having a good day on offense. The Commanders will likely throw the game away with turnovers at some point and with the Colts D being a solid unit, they can win this one by 10.
Colts 23-13 Commanders
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -10.5
My Pick:
I’d normally be on the Packers here as they have a good enough defense to cover a big number. But the Bills have a huge coaching mismatch in their favour and a bye week to prepare for this one. I can see it being ugly, the Packers will struggle to run on this defense and they’ll be forced to throw a lot which is something they’ve struggled at doing all season. The Bills can score on anyone with the passing game they have and I can see them getting to 27 points which will be enough to cover here.
Bills 27-14 Packers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Spread: Bengals -3
My Pick:
I like the Bengals here. They’re a better team than the Browns and the Browns have picked up a really ugly losing habit at the moment. The defense has been extremely disappointing and while I expect them to sack Burrow a few times, the secondary is also likely to get torched a few times. The Browns on offense have suffered from poor playcalling and with the Bengals having a strong defense, it looks like they will be the ones to pick up the win here.
Bengals 27-21 Browns
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