Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans
Spread: Eagles -14
I’ve found over the years that when there’s an inflated spread that’s over 10, the home team will usually play harder to cover it. So I like the Texans here to cover this number, they can utilise a run first offense against a run defense that gives up 5 yards per carry and that should mean they keep the ball for long enough to not get epically blown out. I do fully expect the Eagles to take care of business and win this one though.
Eagles 27-17 Texans
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Spread: Bills -11.5
I probably should’ve put a side note on the preview for the Eagles game when talking about teams covering large spreads is that my point is void if a team turns the ball over a lot, this is the case with the Jets. I worry for Zach Wilson in this matchup and with the Jets running game having lost Hall, I struggle to see them generating much offense here. The Bills do tend to play hard against their division and I envision a blowout in this one given their offense is too high powered for the Jets to stop.
Bills 28-10 Jets
Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -7
I’m on Carolina to cover here but lose again. The Bengals were dreadful on Monday night and without Chase to bail out the ineptitude of Zac Taylor, I expect the Bengals to start not covering spreads. PJ Walker looked excellent on Sunday and I don’t think many casual fans will have caught on to this, with a nicely balanced offense they can put up 24 points but I can see the Bengals doing enough with some Burrow magic to scrape a win given the Panthers defense was shredded last week by the Falcons.
Bengals 26-24 Panthers
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Spread: Packers -3.5
I’ve been against the Packers recently due to coaching ineptitude, but I honestly don’t think Dan Campbell is doing a great job with the Lions lately either. This put it as an even coaching matchup and thus comes down to the teams. I’m taking the Packers here, they don’t take lots of sacks so that nullifies the main strength of the Detroit D and they should run and throw the ball well here. The Lions will also have joy on offense but I believe the Packers D are more likely to force turnovers and that can be the difference in this one.
Packers 31-24 Lions
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -5.5
This is the biggest coaching mismatch of the week. The Colts players are making very basic errors and look to have given up on Reich. Their defense is solid but can be gashed through the air and if Bailey Zappe starts, the Patriots can run a efficient offense through him. I don’t see the Colts scoring a lot of points with a rookie QB against Belichick and that should lead to a New England cover.
Patriots 24-13 Colts
LA Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Chargers -3
I’m taking the Falcons here. The Chargers are injured and they’re horrible against the run. I can see this being a similar story to the Browns and 49ers games for the Falcons where they can run all over an injured team, especially with Patterson back and with the Chargers likely to be 1 dimensional and with Herbert throwing some poor picks this year, I can see the Chargers struggling more than they should to score on the Falcons. I’ll take Atlanta by 7.
Falcons 28-21 Chargers
Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Raiders -1.5
I wouldn’t go anywhere near this game on a betting front. Both teams are horribly coached and we don’t know if the Raiders have recovered from their team illness. This game will likely come to QB play as both teams are solid against the run and that also fills me with no confidence since both QBs have been underwhelming. I’m taking Jacksonville to win purely because they’re a minor underdog and they’re at home but don’t go near this game.
Jaguars 24-21 Raiders
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Dolphins -4.5
Before the trade deadline I had this game lined up as my upset of the week, but the Bears losing Smith and the Dolphins gaining Chubb does change things. But I’ll still take the upset, the Miami D-line is horrible and the Bears should have a lot of success running the ball, Fields is playing excellently this year and the Bears D may force a couple of turnovers in a stadium that is tricky to play at. I’ll take the Bears by 6.
Bears 27-21 Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders
Spread: Vikings -3
I’m not as down on Washington as I was earlier in the season so I wouldn’t be going over the top on this pick but I still like Minnesota here. They have a strong run defense and with Washington struggling to run the ball, I expect their offense to be 1 dimensional here which opens up the door for one of the O-lines that has allowed the most sacks to get hammered here. Washington still also have major secondary issues and I expect the Vikings will have too much for them on offense and they can cover the spread here.
Vikings 28-20 Commanders
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals -2
The Cardinals shouldn’t be favourites here. They’re a poorly coached team that love to shoot themselves in the foot and that won’t be good news against a well drilled and improving Seattle team. Their defense has already shut down Arizona once this season and with their run game on the improve, I don’t see why they shouldn’t win here.
Seahawks 24-20 Cardinals
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -3
You could make a case for these 2 teams being the most disappointing in the league this year. Tampa are poorly coached and the Rams just suck for whatever reason. Neither team can run the ball but the Rams have a worse pass defense than the Buccaneers so I’m going to be on Tampa here. I expect this game to be very ugly but the Bucs can grind out a result, especially if Kupp isn’t fully fit.
Buccaneers 23-17 Rams
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -12.5
Even if Malik Willis starts, this spread is heavily inflated. The Titans are better coached than the Chiefs and have an excellent defense that can keep them in games. They may have been destroyed by the Bills earlier this season but I imagine with a run heavy offense they’ll turn the ball over and even though I expect them to lose, they’ll play conservatively enough to keep things respectable.
Chiefs 24-14 Titans