NFL Week 10 Picks

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Falcons -2.5

My Pick:

This is a tough one for me, I have the spread at Falcons -1 and though I believe Carolina can definitely win this game, the Falcons may have more motivation as it seems obvious now that Carolina will be incentivised to tank and take a QB in the 1st round. The defenses are fairly even and both teams have proven they can do whatever they want on offense to each other in the previous meeting. I’ll just take my spread and say Atlanta win by 1.

Falcons 24-23 Panthers

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -2.5

My Pick:

This spread is straight up wrong in my opinion. Tampa Bay are awfully coached and lack effort, they’re 1 dimensional on offense and give up points on defense. Meanwhile, Seattle are balanced and highly motivated, the fear is their body clocks may not adjust to the timezone but Pete Carroll has an excellent early kick off record in his career and Seattle can win by a touchdown.

Seahawks 24-17 Buccaneers

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -3.5

My Pick:

This is another tough one to handicap for me. These teams are evenly matched on paper as both figure to be successful on offense which would put me on Cleveland, but I believe Miami has a coaching advantage and maybe they are just that little bit more explosive. This isn’t a confident pick but I’ll say Miami by 4.

Dolphins 31-27 Browns

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -2.5

My Pick:

I’m going against my coaching mismatch theory and taking Denver. Tennessee are extremely 1 dimensional and the Broncos are 2-1 against the AFC South this year, they just had a real season changing win and have had a bye while the Titans are coming off an overtime win. Denver may have a bit more explosiveness in them and can win this game outright.

Broncos 20-14 Titans

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -3

My Pick:

I think moving from -1.5 to -3 for the Bears is a major overreaction to what we saw last week. The Lions were impressive in beating the Packers, the defense is better with guys back from injury and the Bears D was atrocious last week. I think that advantage gives them an edge in this matchup and I’ll take Detroit to pull off the upset.

Lions 27-24 Bears

Houston Texans @ New York Giants

Spread: Giants -4.5

My Pick:

This line was Giants -7 at the start of the week which was too high, but -4.5 seems reasonable now and I will be betting the Giants. The Texans can’t defend the run and while they should have success throwing the ball against a blitz heavy team, I like the Giants to have a coaching edge and the home advantage makes me believe they win by 6.

Giants 26-20 Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -9.5

My Pick:

I like the Chiefs here, Doug Pedersen is a terrible coach and the Chiefs are playing well on defense this season. Their offense will be able to beat Jacksonville deep and Kelce should have a good matchup, the main threat the Jaguars offer comes in the run game but the Chiefs have a solid run defense and I have them winning by 11.

Chiefs 28-17 Jaguars

Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -3.5

My Pick:

Josh Allen will either be out or playing hobbled. I like Minnesota with that being considered. The Bills in a regular season game aren’t miles ahead of this Minnesota team at the moment and Minnesota may see this as a big opportunity to get a statement win, it’ll be a close game and I’ll take the underdog.

Vikings 24-20 Bills

New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Saints -1.5

My Pick:

I’m very surprised the Steelers are underdogs, they’re better coached, possibly more explosive and TJ Watt is coming back. I thought this number would be nearer to Steelers -3 and so I will definitely be betting them to win. Mike Tomlin is excellent against the spread at home and the Saints are struggling heavily on offense at the moment.

Steelers 20-13 Saints

Indianapolis Colts @ LV Raiders

Spread: Raiders -5

My Pick:

Both teams are massively underwhelming, but the Colts may now be in a good situation due to firing Frank Reich. I imagine Jeff Saturday will be there as a motivator and the assistants will do most of the heavy lifting so the Colts will play harder this week. Meanwhile the Raiders are clearly trying to get Josh McDaniels fired and now the season appears lost, so they could end up tanking here and this will be the last straw for McDaniels.

Colts 24-20 Raiders

Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams

Spread: Rams -1.5

My Pick:

I like the Cardinals here, the Rams are a mess and a lost team so I expect McVay to leave at the end of the season, I don’t expect a full effort from them and the Cardinals are a better team than them at the moment. The spread basically sees them as even but the Rams have no home advantage with the lack of atmosphere and the Cardinals should be improving with Hopkins back.

Cardinals 23-20 Rams

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Cowboys -4.5

My Pick:

The Packers are extremely injured but they are at home and I don’t like taking Mike McCarthy on the road as a favourite against his old team. The Packers are a team that are too proud to intentionally tank and though they have major issues on offense, their defense can keep this game close and I can see them losing by only a field goal in this one.

Cowboys 17-14 Packers

LA Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -7

My Pick:

I’m taking the 49ers here. The signing of McCaffrey has revolutionised them and Brandon Staley is doing an awful job for the Chargers this season. I don’t see them as a team to cover spreads at all and given their offensive issues, I struggle to see them staying competitive in this one.

49ers 30-17 Chargers

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -11

My Pick:

This spread is inflated in my eyes. Washington have played decent teams close as of late and the Eagles may start to look ahead in games and just do enough to win at this time at season, they want to peak for the playoffs and a game like this could get scrappy because of it. I’ll take an Eagles win and a Commanders cover.

Eagles 24-17 Commanders

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