NFL Week 11 Picks

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -3

My Pick:

I’m taking the Titans here. The Packers are horrible against the run and there is a big coaching mismatch here. The Packers also went to overtime last time out so may have more fatigue coming into this than the Titans. I’ll take the Titans by 7.

Titans 24-17 Packers

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -12

My Pick:

The Ravens are coming off a bye so they have a rest edge in this one and I imagine they’ll be highly motivated to stamp their authority on this game as the Ravens now have a run of very winnable games and they can build momentum heading into the playoffs. The Panthers meanwhile will have to start Mayfield again here and with their blocking looking subpar compared to the pass rush of Baltimore, I’ll take the Ravens to win a blowout here.

Ravens 28-13 Panthers

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -3

My Pick:

This is a tough one to call, Chicago have missed covering spreads the last couple of weeks but have had to deal with some awful officiating as well in that time. The defense for me is a huge concern though and with the Falcons playing fairly efficient football at home, they can win the turnover battle and get the cover in this one. Expect this to be a offense heavy game but that may also result in long drives so I’ll take a 52 point game and a Falcons cover.

Falcons 28-24 Bears

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -8.5

My Pick:

As you know, I love betting coaching mismatches and this is a mismatch in favour of the Bills, the spread has come down as there is a supposed prospect of a snow game but that seems unlikely at the moment. The Browns are terrible on defense while the Bills are getting guys back from injury and the Bills majorly need to find winning momentum again so they can fight for the number 1 seed. This looks to be set up for a Bills blowout win.

Bills 27-10 Browns

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

Spread: Giants -3

My Pick:

I’m taking the upset here. The Giants have recently benefitted from coaching mismatches but I don’t believe we have one here, the Lions are an underrated team and are getting more guys back from injury, especially on defense. I’d make the case that with the Giants having offensive line injuries at the moment and a lack of quality receivers that the Lions have a better offense than the Giants and that homefield advantage won’t be enough for the Giants to get the win here.

Lions 24-20 Giants

LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -4

My Pick:

Both of these teams suck. I’m not even sure Sean McVay can have coaching mismatches at the moment given he has barely covered a spread all year. That being said, the Saints are injured and look listless on offense, 4 is a big number to cover for a terrible offense and people may be overreacting to the Rams losing to an underrated Arizona team last week. That’s enough for me to pick them to cover but it’s hard to even pick a score for this. I’ll say Saints by 1.

Saints 21-20 Rams

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -3

My Pick:

This is probably going to turn out to be a stupid pick, but I’m picking the Jets. The main weakness that a defense has in this matchup is the Patriots against the run and I don’t think this is a major coaching mismatch. The obvious concern is Zack Wilson having another meltdown but Mac Jones also likes a turnover and it’s probably good for my pick that the spread is stuck at 3 despite it being likely that everyone is on the Patriots. So I’ll take the Jets D to lead them to an upset win.

Jets 20-17 Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Eagles -7

My Pick:

I like the Eagles to win and cover here. There’s a coaching mismatch, and the Eagles have traded for strong run defenders to beef up their defensive line. I believe they’ll outmatch the Colts in the trenches and that they can dominate this matchup.

Eagles 27-17 Colts

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans

Spread: Commanders -3

My Pick:

I’m going to take the Texans to win outright here. I believe these teams are evenly matched if the game is played at Houston and that Washington’s improved run game may be a 1 week mirage rather than a trend of what’s to come. The Commanders also played on Monday while the Texans had extra rest and they did have success moving the ball against the Giants who have a better defense, the Texans are due a win and they can get it here.

Texans 21-20 Commanders

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -2.5

My Pick:

As you know, my strategy when 2 teams suck is to pick the underdog so I’ll take the Raiders here. Both teams have clearly given up on their coaches and I believe it’ll be easier for the Raiders to exploit Denver’s weakness against the run that it will be for the Broncos to exploit the Raiders having a poor pass defense as Wilson is still playing at a underwhelming level. I’ll take the Raiders to dominate this game and win by a touchdown.

Raiders 24-17 Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Bengals -4

My Pick:

I have the Steelers winning this outright for a few reasons. 1: They’re underrated, this team is massively different with TJ Watt back, 2: Mike Tomlin has a coaching mismatch in his favour 3: The Steelers defense has been excellent at home and the Bengals offense looks a lot worse without Chase. I think this game turns into a bit of a dogfight and the Steelers are better suited to that sort of game.

Steelers 20-14 Bengals

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Cowboys -1.5

My Pick:

There’s been a lot in the media about how the Vikings have a questionable EPA and are massively overrated at 8-1, but they have winning momentum which counts for a lot in this sport and they have the better coach in this game. They have a strong offensive line which can nullify the biggest strength that the Cowboys have on defense and the Cowboys struggle against the run. Prescott hasn’t impressed me this season and he can throw a couple of picks against a ball hawking defense in a Vikings win.

Vikings 27-21 Cowboys

Kansas City Chiefs @ LA Chargers

Spread: Chiefs -5

My Pick:

It looks like the Chargers are getting guys back from injury and that’s why this number is coming down. But with a 6 point Kansas win becoming a win against the spread I’ll take the Chiefs here. I like Reid as a coach more than Staley and Toney has added an extra dimension to the offense of the Chiefs, Herbert has thrown a fair number of interceptions at home and that may be all it takes to get a Chiefs cover.

Chiefs 28-21 Chargers

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: 49ers -8

My Pick:

I’ve got a 49ers win but a Cardinals cover. The Cardinals have an ok run defense in terms of yards per carry and that should mean the 49ers have to throw it more to have success. I’m also not overly down on Colt McCoy and I believe he can keep this game competitive for stretches, the Cardinals could also cover in garbage time with a number this big if we desperately needed them to. I’ll take the 49ers by 7 as their pass rush will cause problems and they can make enough plays on offense in a low scorer.

49ers 21-14 Cardinals

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