NFL Week 13 Picks

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Spread: Bills -4

My Pick:

This should be a fun matchup in a hot AFC East division. I’m taking the Bills here, both defenses have had good seasons but the Bills have a lot more talent on offense than the Patriots do, I’d have this at Bills -6 normally but there is a concern as the Bills reportedly have a flu running around in their camp. I’ll take the Bills but I won’t bet it.

Bills 24-17 Patriots

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

Spread: Browns -7

My Pick:

This spread seems wildly off for me, there’s no coaching mismatch as both coaches suck and I can’t see how Deshaun Watson can be fully sharp for this game having not played in 18 months, also this is the “SuperBowl” for the Texans. The Browns are horrible against the run so the Texans can play the brand of football that they want to and I can see this being an outright upset. Texans by 3 as they pull out to an early lead and hold on.

Texans 24-21 Browns

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -8.5

My Pick:

This is definitely not a game to bet, Baltimore are in danger of becoming disappointing and have failed to cover against a lot of poorly coached teams this year, Denver are a complete trainwreck but their defense is still good and the Ravens can be beat deep, I like Denver at this number but definitely not a game to bet.

Ravens 17-10 Broncos

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Packers -4

My Pick:

I’ll take the Bears here. Both teams are poorly coached and I like that they have home advantage and their running game should give Green Bay major problems, I’ll take them to cover if Siemian starts and if Fields starts, I’ll take the outright upset. The health situation at quarterback for Green Bay is also up in the air. Rodgers is likely to play hobbled and though the Bears defense sucks, I hope they can control the ball enough for it not to matter.

Bears 27-24 Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Spread: Jaguars -1

My Pick:

I’m on Detroit here. People will overreact to the Jaguars beating the Ravens but I don’t think the Ravens are that good, the Lions meanwhile are now playing much better on defense and have an effective and balanced running game. They were unlucky to lose to the Bills and with home advantage should be nearer to -3 instead of being underdogs. I’ll take Detroit to control this game and stave off a late comeback.

Lions 26-23 Jaguars

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -3

My Pick:

I’m taking the upset here. The Jets have an excellent defense and a number 1 corner who can keep Jefferson quiet, I think Cousins is going to struggle to score more than 20 points here and the Vikings give up a lot of yards through the air on defense. The Jets can gash them with their improved passing game and pull out another big victory.

Jets 24-20 Vikings

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Steelers -1

My Pick:

So this season both defenses have been strong against the run and terrible against the pass. This sort of matchup will play a lot more into the hands of the Steelers as the Falcons are missing Pitts and Mariota is not a consistent enough passer to win a QB duel against any starter at the moment. I like Pickett and if he can keep the turnovers down, the Steelers should be able to pull out a win here.

Steelers 26-23 Falcons

Tennesee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -5.5

My Pick:

I believe that the coaching of Vrabel and the stout run defense of the Titans can keep this close. The Eagles aren’t as electric as they were at the start of the season and their defense really struggled last week so I can see the Titans doing plenty enough to keep this game competitive. I’m tempted to take the outright upset here, I believe the Titans can attack the Eagles where they are vulnerable and they will be motivated after a bad loss last week.

Titans 24-21 Eagles

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Spread: Commanders -2.5

My pick:

I like Washington in this matchup, the Giants have benefitted a lot from coaching mismatches this season and they don’t have one here. Washington are a better team at the moment with the Giants having O-line injuries and Heinicke is excellent against the blitz which is helpful against a blitz heavy team like the Giants. So I have Washington winning this by a touchdown.

Commanders 27-20 Giants

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -4

My Pick:

I’m on the 49ers here, the Dolphins are missing their left tackle which will be a nightmare matchup against Bosa and I can see that costing the Dolphins in a tough road game. The Dolphins are a legitimate SuperBowl threat and this can be a tight game for most of it but I believe if the 49ers can score first they’ll have more freedom to go after Tua and they can win this by 5.

49ers 28-23 Dolphins

Seattle Seahawks @ LA Rams

Spread: Seahawks -7

My Pick:

I get that the Rams have thrown in the towel for the season but tanking teams do tend to still play hard at home as obviously they can’t let their fans down, Seattle also have a bug going around the locker room and I can see this game being scrappy. The Rams will likely lose but I can see them covering 7 points in a game that can turn into a slugfest.

Seahawks 17-14 Rams

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Chiefs -2

My Pick:

I’m taking the Bengals here. They’re currently underrated and they have had the number of the Chiefs as of late, they need this win more than Kansas do and their offense can keep ahead in a game that is very likely to be a shootout, I also like their defense to force a turnover more than I do the defense of the Chiefs.

Bengals 30-27 Chiefs

LA Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -1

My Pick:

It’s clear that the Raiders have now officially given up on tanking and have committed to building their offense around Josh Jacobs. This will make them a better team in the long run and I like their chances of winning here. The Chargers have key injuries all over the field and the Raiders are currently underrated, I’ll take the Raiders by 3.

Raiders 24-21 Chargers

Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -10.5

My Pick:

I’ll take Dallas to cover here. They are on a roll at the moment and their pass rush can cause havoc against Matt Ryan who has struggled against the blitz all year. The Colts have improved a little since Reich was fired but they’re still extremely sloppy and against a team with a strong offense like the Cowboys that will cost them. I have the Cowboys winning in a blowout.

Cowboys 34-17 Colts

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -3.5

My Pick:

This is a matchup between 2 horribly coached teams and I have to take the Saints here with the 3.5 spread. I think they have the talent to win this outright though I wouldn’t put money on it due to their poor coaching. The Buccaneers are incredibly 1 dimensional while the Saints on a good day can have a balanced offense and their defense is fairly level with what Tampa can offer. I have no confidence in this game but I’ll take the underdog.

Saints 23-20 Buccaneers

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