Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Rams
Spread: Raiders -6
I like the Rams to keep this close, they have an excellent run defense and may be able to put the clamps enough on Josh Jacobs. Also tanking teams always play harder at home and the Raiders still don’t have amazing coaching and Carr is capable of a turnover. Baker Mayfield may be playing as well with a chip on his shoulder and this game could be close. But I believe the Raiders will find a way to grind out a win here.
Raiders 24-20 Rams
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -2.5
I like the Ravens here, this spread has moved 6.5 points in favour of Pittsburgh with Jackson being out and that’s a ridiculous move as Huntley is perfectly capable. TJ Watt also didn’t look entirely fit against the Falcons so there’s a chance Pittsburgh may not be at full strength here, I believe Baltimore have a slightly better defense than Pittsburgh and that can get them the win here.
Ravens 17-14 Steelers
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -6
Zac Taylor seems to be fairly consistent with performances against teams and he’s struggled a lot with coaching against the Browns. The Browns are probably a bit underrated now after a sloppy performance against the Texans but that was always going to be likely with Watson making his first start in a long time and the Texans defense treating the game like a SuperBowl. I’ll take the Bengals to win but Cleveland to keep things competitive in this one.
Bengals 24-21 Browns
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -16
This is a ridiculous number, the Cowboys are a below average defense against the run and though the Texans self-destructed epically against Cleveland, I can’t see them having that number of silly turnovers in their own redzone again here. They can hold the ball enough to keep the score below this number and their defense actually played well last week. Dallas will likely run the ball well and that will also chew game clock. I’ll take the Cowboys by 12.
Cowboys 26-14 Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -4
I like Jacksonville here. They have the better quarterback and they have been strong against the run at times this year so they may do better against Derrick Henry than they normally would. Also, things within the Titans camp seems dysfunctional at the moment with the firing of their GM and 4 points is overestimating their ability compared to the Jaguars, I’ll take the upset in this one.
Jaguars 21-17 Titans
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -2.5
A lot of people will be surprised at this spread but I like the Lions here. I’ve bet them a lot in recent weeks and the level they are playing at right now is playoff calibre and they match up well with the Vikings given the Lions have been strong against the run lately and they can block well to give Goff time to gash a vulnerable secondary. They nearly beat them earlier in the year without 2 of their better offensive players and they can get the job done here.
Lions 30-24 Vikings
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -9.5
I’ve got the Bills winning this easily. The Jets were a disappointment against the Vikings and while Mike White is an upgrade over Zach Wilson, I’d still class him as an average starter at best. Buffalo will be healthy and need this win in context of the playoff picture and improving their divisional record so I expect them to go full guns blazing and with home advantage, I expect them to blowout the Jets.
Bills 27-10 Jets
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Spread: Eagles -7
I’m taking the Eagles to win and cover here. The Giants don’t defend the run well so the Eagles will be able to run their offense well here and the Giants blitz a lot which Hurts is strong against. The Eagles can sometimes struggle against the run but they shut down Derrick Henry last week and the Eagles are quietly getting healthier. With no coaching mismatch to rely on, the Eagles can win this comfortably.
Eagles 27-14 Giants
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Spread: Chiefs -9
This is probably really stupid but this is a game I could see being a straight up upset. The Broncos have no reason to actively tank and their defense can keep them in games. Meanwhile the Chiefs defense has been below average all season and if the Broncos treat this as a statement game, this could be a chance for Wilson to have his best game of the year. I definitely expect the Broncos to cover 9 and I’ll take an upset.
Broncos 17-16 Chiefs
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -3.5
I’m on Carolina here. The Seahawks defense is not good and Carolina can run a balanced offense here. Meanwhile the Panthers are now a quietly underrated team, their defense has been strong all year and the Seahawks will be missing Kenneth Walker which may force them to go pass heavier than would be ideal. The Seahawks also have a Thursday night game to look ahead to and they could be caught here. I’ll take a Panthers win.
Panthers 24-20 Seahawks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -3.5
This one is tough because theoretically I should be on the Bucs given Tom Brady is 6-0 against QBs making their first start but Tampa are so bad. They’re horribly coached and should’ve been blown out by a Saints side that have even worse coaching. The 49esrs may be injured but they still have a lot of talent and have full incentive to keep winning. I’ll take them by 6 in a low quality game.
49ers 20-14 Buccaneers
Miami Dolphins @ LA Chargers
Spread: Dolphins -3
Both teams struggle with running the ball so I expect a lot of passing in this one. The Dolphins are a better passing offense but I’d say this should be a Dolphins -4 game on a neutral turf and the Chargers being at home makes this spread Dolphins -3 for me so I won’t be taking a side against the spread in this one. But I will take the Dolphins to win, they’re healthier and better coached and their weapons can do enough to get the job done in a shootout.
Dolphins 30-27 Chargers
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Patriots -1.5
I haven’t thrown this term out in a while but this is a major coaching mismatch. Kingsbury is out of his depth in the NFL and Belichick is arguably the best coach in the league. The Cardinals defense isn’t good enough to shut down the offense of the Patriots and make it 1 dimensional while the Patriots D will struggle a bit but the coaching edge can get them the win here.
Patriots 24-21 Cardinals