Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Spread: Jets -2.5
The Jaguars are a bit too injured for me on the offensive line front in this one. The only major weakness on either defense is the Jaguars struggle against the pass but Wilson sucks so expect a low scoring game where the Jets edge it because the Jets tend to put a drive or 2 together a game.
Jets 17-14 Jaguars
Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Both defenses are bad against the air and strong against ground attacks, Jackson may be back but won’t be fully sharp immediately for this one. I do think Baltimore are better but the Falcons keep it close.
Ravens 20-17 Falcons
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears
Spread: Bills -8
The Bills will win this game since the Bears are tanking but I believe they may be looking ahead and Fields could get a backdoor cover in a similar manner to what happened in the Bears vs Eagles game last week.
Bills 27-21 Bears
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
Spread: Bengals -3
I was disappointed by how the Bengals played last week and they don’t match up well here on defense with the Patriots. The Patriots played an ok game on the road and just made a farcical play to blow it at the end, they can bounce back this week.
Patriots 24-21 Bengals
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Spread: Lions -2.5
I’m taking Detroit, both offenses project to do pretty well here but I like what Detroit has going more than what Carolina does on that side of the ball so I’ll take them to win by 4.
Lions 28-24 Panthers
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -3
The Titans are good against the run and poor against the pass, Houston struggle to throw so the Titans should be fine on defense, the Texans can’t stop the run so the Titans can control this and win easily.
Titans 24-14 Texans
New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -3
I’d make this game a coinflip given the Browns have a better offense but a worse defense than the Saints. Both teams suffer from poor coaching as well. I’ll take Cleveland by 1 though purely because they may have slightly better coaching and Watson has room to improve.
Browns 24-23 Saints
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings -4
The Vikings can’t defend the pass but the Giants can’t defend the run. I think their disadvantage levels them out a bit with maybe the Vikings being slightly more likely to exploit the weakness of their opponents, I’ll take them to win by 3 though, they love a 1 score game so Giants +4 feels like value.
Vikings 27-24 Giants
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -10
Seattle are a bit injured on offense and that will hurt them in a game where there doesn’t project to be a lot of defense. I’ll take the Chiefs to win and cover in a high scorer.
Chiefs 35-24 Seahawks
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -7
I think Washington’s defense is good enough to keep this close. The 49ers may not give it their all here given this could be a look ahead spot and Washington tend to step their game up against the bigger teams. I do think the talent edge is enough though for the 49ers to win by 4.
49ers 21-17 Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -5
Hurts being out has ballooned this spread and I think that’s a mistake. The Eagles should be fine with Minshew as he’s a serviceable thrower of the ball and has some mobility. But the defenses are pretty even in this one and I’d say this game is a coinflip on talent with the Cowboys edging it due to being at home.
Cowboys 23-21 Eagles
Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -2.5
Another game where the defenses are pretty even statistically. But the Steelers were missing their best defensive player for a good portion of the season and they’ve been playing better lately than the Raiders. I worry that the Raiders do have a good record against the Steelers but I have to take the better team to win by 4 in this sort of situation.
Steelers 24-20 Raiders
Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -4
Both defenses suck and with Rodgers coming back to full form, I like this game to be a shootout. I have the Dolphins winning by the exact 4. This game is very likely to be 1 score and the Dolphins have a coaching edge so it’s tough to see the Packers covering because of that.
Dolphins 31-27 Packers
Denver Broncos @ LA Rams
Spread: Broncos -2.5
Russell Wilson will be back and the Rams pass defense is the weakest defensive unit in this game, knowing that and having the quarterback edge in their favour, it’s tough to go against the Broncos winning and covering here.
Broncos 24-14 Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Buccaneers -7.5
Trace McSorley was a disaster against the Broncos and he projects to start here. With that in mind I have to be on Tampa here despite knowing they’re also terrible. Both sets of coaches are trash so this game will be decided by who has the better team and that right now is Tampa.
Buccaneers 27-10 Cardinals
LA Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Chargers -4.5
I like the Colts here, they have a stout defense while the Chargers give up a lot of yards. I worry that they are not reacting well to Saturday at all and just blew a heavy lead but I think they can actually win this game straight up, the Chargers don’t convince me at all and aren’t as good as their record.
Colts 23-20 Chargers