Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets

Spread: Jets -2.5

My Pick:

The Jaguars are a bit too injured for me on the offensive line front in this one. The only major weakness on either defense is the Jaguars struggle against the pass but Wilson sucks so expect a low scoring game where the Jets edge it because the Jets tend to put a drive or 2 together a game.

Jets 17-14 Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -6.5

My Pick:

Both defenses are bad against the air and strong against ground attacks, Jackson may be back but won’t be fully sharp immediately for this one. I do think Baltimore are better but the Falcons keep it close.

Ravens 20-17 Falcons

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Bills -8

My Pick:

The Bills will win this game since the Bears are tanking but I believe they may be looking ahead and Fields could get a backdoor cover in a similar manner to what happened in the Bears vs Eagles game last week.

Bills 27-21 Bears

Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots

Spread: Bengals -3

My Pick:

I was disappointed by how the Bengals played last week and they don’t match up well here on defense with the Patriots. The Patriots played an ok game on the road and just made a farcical play to blow it at the end, they can bounce back this week.

Patriots 24-21 Bengals

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Lions -2.5

My Pick:

I’m taking Detroit, both offenses project to do pretty well here but I like what Detroit has going more than what Carolina does on that side of the ball so I’ll take them to win by 4.

Lions 28-24 Panthers

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -3

My Pick:

The Titans are good against the run and poor against the pass, Houston struggle to throw so the Titans should be fine on defense, the Texans can’t stop the run so the Titans can control this and win easily.

Titans 24-14 Texans

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -3

My Pick:

I’d make this game a coinflip given the Browns have a better offense but a worse defense than the Saints. Both teams suffer from poor coaching as well. I’ll take Cleveland by 1 though purely because they may have slightly better coaching and Watson has room to improve.

Browns 24-23 Saints

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -4

My Pick:

The Vikings can’t defend the pass but the Giants can’t defend the run. I think their disadvantage levels them out a bit with maybe the Vikings being slightly more likely to exploit the weakness of their opponents, I’ll take them to win by 3 though, they love a 1 score game so Giants +4 feels like value.

Vikings 27-24 Giants

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -10

My Pick:

Seattle are a bit injured on offense and that will hurt them in a game where there doesn’t project to be a lot of defense. I’ll take the Chiefs to win and cover in a high scorer.

Chiefs 35-24 Seahawks

Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -7

My Pick:

I think Washington’s defense is good enough to keep this close. The 49ers may not give it their all here given this could be a look ahead spot and Washington tend to step their game up against the bigger teams. I do think the talent edge is enough though for the 49ers to win by 4.

49ers 21-17 Commanders

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -5

My Pick:

Hurts being out has ballooned this spread and I think that’s a mistake. The Eagles should be fine with Minshew as he’s a serviceable thrower of the ball and has some mobility. But the defenses are pretty even in this one and I’d say this game is a coinflip on talent with the Cowboys edging it due to being at home.

Cowboys 23-21 Eagles

Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -2.5

My Pick:

Another game where the defenses are pretty even statistically. But the Steelers were missing their best defensive player for a good portion of the season and they’ve been playing better lately than the Raiders. I worry that the Raiders do have a good record against the Steelers but I have to take the better team to win by 4 in this sort of situation.

Steelers 24-20 Raiders

Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -4

My Pick:

Both defenses suck and with Rodgers coming back to full form, I like this game to be a shootout. I have the Dolphins winning by the exact 4. This game is very likely to be 1 score and the Dolphins have a coaching edge so it’s tough to see the Packers covering because of that.

Dolphins 31-27 Packers

Denver Broncos @ LA Rams

Spread: Broncos -2.5

My Pick:

Russell Wilson will be back and the Rams pass defense is the weakest defensive unit in this game, knowing that and having the quarterback edge in their favour, it’s tough to go against the Broncos winning and covering here.

Broncos 24-14 Rams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Buccaneers -7.5

My Pick:

Trace McSorley was a disaster against the Broncos and he projects to start here. With that in mind I have to be on Tampa here despite knowing they’re also terrible. Both sets of coaches are trash so this game will be decided by who has the better team and that right now is Tampa.

Buccaneers 27-10 Cardinals

LA Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Chargers -4.5

My Pick:

I like the Colts here, they have a stout defense while the Chargers give up a lot of yards. I worry that they are not reacting well to Saturday at all and just blew a heavy lead but I think they can actually win this game straight up, the Chargers don’t convince me at all and aren’t as good as their record.

Colts 23-20 Chargers

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Spread: 49ers -3.5

My Pick:

The spread has moved a couple of points from the advance spread of 49ers -1.5 but I don’t think it’s moved enough. The Seattle defense is back to being miserable and they have no run game without Walker, he might play here but will likely be hobbled. Meanwhile, Purdy has looked decent for the 49ers and they’re so stacked when fully healthy that even if he does struggle, they have enough playmakers to win this game. I have the 49ers by a touchdown.

49ers 24-17 Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -4

My Pick:

This is a tough one to decide, I believe this is a coaching mismatch in favour of the Vikings but the Colts have a very good defense and could keep this game low scoring. I’ll still take the Vikings to cover though, they can force turnovers and that may be enough for them to cover here.

Vikings 23-17 Colts

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -3

My Pick:

I don’t get why the Browns are favourites here. Especially by 3. The Ravens are excellent against the run and Watson has been woeful since returning. He’s still not sharp at all and people are seemingly overrating him. Huntley is a capable backup for Baltimore and with the Browns being a woeful defense against the rush, I’d expect them to be dominated in this one.

Ravens 24-13 Browns

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -7.5

My Pick:

This is tough. Both teams are well coached but are arguably also overrated. When you dig into the stats there actually isn’t a massive gap between the teams, the Bills are slightly better but this should be nearer to a Bills -4 sort of spread and I’ll take the Dolphins to cover here. They have explosiveness on offense and they won’t have to score many points to cover the spread.

Bills 24-20 Dolphins

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -4

My Pick:

I like the Falcons to win this game. There isn’t a major gap between these teams that would make it nearer to Saints -2 and Dennis Allen is completely inept at coaching so that can be the difference between these teams. Desmond Ridder makes his debut for the Falcons and while he can be erratic, he also has shown that he can drive a team down the field and the Saints are dodgy against the run. I’ll take a Falcons win by 3.

Falcons 27-24 Saints

Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Cowboys -4.5

My Pick:

I like Jacksonville to cover, but think the Cowboys might nick this one. The Cowboys defense is very pass rush reliant but the Jaguars are good at protecting Lawrence and their offense should be able to perform well in this game. But the Jaguars defense is very vulnerable in general and the Cowboys having stronger offensive playmakers will be the difference in this one.

Cowboys 28-24 Jaguars

Detroit Lions @ New York Jets

Spread: Lions -1

My Pick:

I’ve got the Jets winning this one. It’ll be a cold weather game most likely and they’ll thrive more in tough conditions than the Lions and especially Jarred Goff. If Mike White is out then this pick may change but if he’s in then he can take advantage of a defense that struggles heavily against the pass. Both teams are strong against the run so it will likely descend into a QB duel and I’d rather have White against a bad pass defense than Goff against a good one.

Jets 20-14 Lions

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

Spread: Chiefs -14

My Pick:

I’m taking the Texans to keep this somewhat competitive. As I’ve said previously “tanking” teams tend to play harder at home while finding a way to lose and the Chiefs defense is pretty poor. Also this is likely going to be a look ahead spot for the Chiefs given it’s a seemingly easy road game and the playoffs are around the corner. I expect them to do enough early on to blow out to an early lead and then take their foot of the gas and let the Texans get a backdoor cover against their porous defense. I do expect the Chiefs to score a lot though, the Texans D is horrible and the Chiefs should be able to run whatever offense they want on them.

Chiefs 31-21 Texans

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Eagles -9

My Pick:

I like the Eagles to win and cover here. They’re miles superior to the Bears, they have a coaching advantage and I don’t see this being a look ahead spot for them. The Bears defense can’t stop anything and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles scored on every drive near enough and the return of Jordan Davis should force the Bears to be 1 dimensional and keep them down to around 20 points.

Eagles 35-21 Bears

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Panthers -3

My Pick:

The Panthers are weak to the run and the Steelers are weak against the pass, so this game boils down to do you trust the Steelers to run well more or the Panthers to pass well. I believe the Steelers are the right side for this, Darnold was only averaging 5 yards an attempt last week and Harris is playing better at the moment for the Steelers. This will likely be a slugfest and the Steelers can pick up the win.

Steelers 17-16 Panthers

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -3

My Pick:

I don’t want anything to do with this game. Both offense project to majorly struggle and this will definitely be a low scorer. I’m going to take the Broncos by 3, their defense is more likely to force a turnover and they have home advantage but this game will be very forgettable.

Broncos 17-14 Cardinals

New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Raiders -1

My Pick:

I’ve got New England here. Their defense is quietly very strong and with the Raiders being weak against the pass on pure talent I’d have the spread at New England -1. You then bring in the coaching mismatch with Belichick vs McDaniels and this spread is nearer to a New England -4 sort of number for me. I’ll take the Patriots to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Patriots 24-20 Raiders

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Bengals -3.5

My Pick:

Both teams are even defensively but the Bengals have a huge advantage with their offense here. Their passing game has been excellent this year and Tampa Bay are a terrible team. They clearly are dreadfully coached and they’ve been blown out by the backup of the 49ers and should’ve been blown out by the Saints. The only reason this spread seems to be so low is that Tom Brady plays for the Bucs but I can’t see him dragging this poor of a team into a close game. I’ll take the Bengals by 10.

Bengals 27-17 Buccaneers

Tennessee Titans @ LA Chargers

Spread: Chargers -3

My Pick:

I think there’ll be a surprisingly large amount of offense in the game. The Titans are weak to the pass and good against the run but the Chargers don’t run the ball so that is irrelevant and the Chargers are horrible against the run so Henry should have a big day here. The spread on talent is probably right but this is a coaching mismatch so my line would be a straight pick em. With that in mind I’ll take the line value with the Titans and say they pull off the win here.

Titans 27-24 Chargers

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Spread: Commanders -4.5

My Pick:

These teams tied earlier in the season and I don’t think there’s much between them. I’d give a small edge to Washington because they’re at home but 4.5 points seems a bit on the high side. They’re both decent on defense and while the Commanders are balanced on offense, the Giants bias towards the run but Washington are only an average run defense. I think the only edge in the game is Washington having home advantage so I’ll say they win by 2.

Commanders 23-21 Giants

LA Rams @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -7

My Pick:

I don’t see this as a 7 point game. The Packers are not a good team and I really don’t think there’s much between these sides. The Packers are poor against the run while both teams are level defensively against the pass. The Packers do have a clear advantage with skill position players but I can only see them winning by a field goal instead of by a touchdown. This could be low scoring with the conditions and I’ll take the Packers to grind one out.

Packers 24-20 Rams

Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Rams

Spread: Raiders -6

My Pick:

I like the Rams to keep this close, they have an excellent run defense and may be able to put the clamps enough on Josh Jacobs. Also tanking teams always play harder at home and the Raiders still don’t have amazing coaching and Carr is capable of a turnover. Baker Mayfield may be playing as well with a chip on his shoulder and this game could be close. But I believe the Raiders will find a way to grind out a win here.

Raiders 24-20 Rams

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers -2.5

My Pick:

I like the Ravens here, this spread has moved 6.5 points in favour of Pittsburgh with Jackson being out and that’s a ridiculous move as Huntley is perfectly capable. TJ Watt also didn’t look entirely fit against the Falcons so there’s a chance Pittsburgh may not be at full strength here, I believe Baltimore have a slightly better defense than Pittsburgh and that can get them the win here.

Ravens 17-14 Steelers

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -6

My Pick:

Zac Taylor seems to be fairly consistent with performances against teams and he’s struggled a lot with coaching against the Browns. The Browns are probably a bit underrated now after a sloppy performance against the Texans but that was always going to be likely with Watson making his first start in a long time and the Texans defense treating the game like a SuperBowl. I’ll take the Bengals to win but Cleveland to keep things competitive in this one.

Bengals 24-21 Browns

Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -16

My Pick:

This is a ridiculous number, the Cowboys are a below average defense against the run and though the Texans self-destructed epically against Cleveland, I can’t see them having that number of silly turnovers in their own redzone again here. They can hold the ball enough to keep the score below this number and their defense actually played well last week. Dallas will likely run the ball well and that will also chew game clock. I’ll take the Cowboys by 12.

Cowboys 26-14 Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -4

My Pick:

I like Jacksonville here. They have the better quarterback and they have been strong against the run at times this year so they may do better against Derrick Henry than they normally would. Also, things within the Titans camp seems dysfunctional at the moment with the firing of their GM and 4 points is overestimating their ability compared to the Jaguars, I’ll take the upset in this one.

Jaguars 21-17 Titans

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -2.5

My Pick:

A lot of people will be surprised at this spread but I like the Lions here. I’ve bet them a lot in recent weeks and the level they are playing at right now is playoff calibre and they match up well with the Vikings given the Lions have been strong against the run lately and they can block well to give Goff time to gash a vulnerable secondary. They nearly beat them earlier in the year without 2 of their better offensive players and they can get the job done here.

Lions 30-24 Vikings

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -9.5

My Pick:

I’ve got the Bills winning this easily. The Jets were a disappointment against the Vikings and while Mike White is an upgrade over Zach Wilson, I’d still class him as an average starter at best. Buffalo will be healthy and need this win in context of the playoff picture and improving their divisional record so I expect them to go full guns blazing and with home advantage, I expect them to blowout the Jets.

Bills 27-10 Jets

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

Spread: Eagles -7

My Pick:

I’m taking the Eagles to win and cover here. The Giants don’t defend the run well so the Eagles will be able to run their offense well here and the Giants blitz a lot which Hurts is strong against. The Eagles can sometimes struggle against the run but they shut down Derrick Henry last week and the Eagles are quietly getting healthier. With no coaching mismatch to rely on, the Eagles can win this comfortably.

Eagles 27-14 Giants

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Spread: Chiefs -9

My Pick:

This is probably really stupid but this is a game I could see being a straight up upset. The Broncos have no reason to actively tank and their defense can keep them in games. Meanwhile the Chiefs defense has been below average all season and if the Broncos treat this as a statement game, this could be a chance for Wilson to have his best game of the year. I definitely expect the Broncos to cover 9 and I’ll take an upset.

Broncos 17-16 Chiefs

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -3.5

My Pick:

I’m on Carolina here. The Seahawks defense is not good and Carolina can run a balanced offense here. Meanwhile the Panthers are now a quietly underrated team, their defense has been strong all year and the Seahawks will be missing Kenneth Walker which may force them to go pass heavier than would be ideal. The Seahawks also have a Thursday night game to look ahead to and they could be caught here. I’ll take a Panthers win.

Panthers 24-20 Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -3.5

My Pick:

This one is tough because theoretically I should be on the Bucs given Tom Brady is 6-0 against QBs making their first start but Tampa are so bad. They’re horribly coached and should’ve been blown out by a Saints side that have even worse coaching. The 49esrs may be injured but they still have a lot of talent and have full incentive to keep winning. I’ll take them by 6 in a low quality game.

49ers 20-14 Buccaneers

Miami Dolphins @ LA Chargers

Spread: Dolphins -3

My Pick:

Both teams struggle with running the ball so I expect a lot of passing in this one. The Dolphins are a better passing offense but I’d say this should be a Dolphins -4 game on a neutral turf and the Chargers being at home makes this spread Dolphins -3 for me so I won’t be taking a side against the spread in this one. But I will take the Dolphins to win, they’re healthier and better coached and their weapons can do enough to get the job done in a shootout.

Dolphins 30-27 Chargers

New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Patriots -1.5

My Pick:

I haven’t thrown this term out in a while but this is a major coaching mismatch. Kingsbury is out of his depth in the NFL and Belichick is arguably the best coach in the league. The Cardinals defense isn’t good enough to shut down the offense of the Patriots and make it 1 dimensional while the Patriots D will struggle a bit but the coaching edge can get them the win here.

Patriots 24-21 Cardinals

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Packers -3

My Pick:

I’m taking the Titans here. The Packers are horrible against the run and there is a big coaching mismatch here. The Packers also went to overtime last time out so may have more fatigue coming into this than the Titans. I’ll take the Titans by 7.

Titans 24-17 Packers

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -12

My Pick:

The Ravens are coming off a bye so they have a rest edge in this one and I imagine they’ll be highly motivated to stamp their authority on this game as the Ravens now have a run of very winnable games and they can build momentum heading into the playoffs. The Panthers meanwhile will have to start Mayfield again here and with their blocking looking subpar compared to the pass rush of Baltimore, I’ll take the Ravens to win a blowout here.

Ravens 28-13 Panthers

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Falcons -3

My Pick:

This is a tough one to call, Chicago have missed covering spreads the last couple of weeks but have had to deal with some awful officiating as well in that time. The defense for me is a huge concern though and with the Falcons playing fairly efficient football at home, they can win the turnover battle and get the cover in this one. Expect this to be a offense heavy game but that may also result in long drives so I’ll take a 52 point game and a Falcons cover.

Falcons 28-24 Bears

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -8.5

My Pick:

As you know, I love betting coaching mismatches and this is a mismatch in favour of the Bills, the spread has come down as there is a supposed prospect of a snow game but that seems unlikely at the moment. The Browns are terrible on defense while the Bills are getting guys back from injury and the Bills majorly need to find winning momentum again so they can fight for the number 1 seed. This looks to be set up for a Bills blowout win.

Bills 27-10 Browns

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

Spread: Giants -3

My Pick:

I’m taking the upset here. The Giants have recently benefitted from coaching mismatches but I don’t believe we have one here, the Lions are an underrated team and are getting more guys back from injury, especially on defense. I’d make the case that with the Giants having offensive line injuries at the moment and a lack of quality receivers that the Lions have a better offense than the Giants and that homefield advantage won’t be enough for the Giants to get the win here.

Lions 24-20 Giants

LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -4

My Pick:

Both of these teams suck. I’m not even sure Sean McVay can have coaching mismatches at the moment given he has barely covered a spread all year. That being said, the Saints are injured and look listless on offense, 4 is a big number to cover for a terrible offense and people may be overreacting to the Rams losing to an underrated Arizona team last week. That’s enough for me to pick them to cover but it’s hard to even pick a score for this. I’ll say Saints by 1.

Saints 21-20 Rams

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -3

My Pick:

This is probably going to turn out to be a stupid pick, but I’m picking the Jets. The main weakness that a defense has in this matchup is the Patriots against the run and I don’t think this is a major coaching mismatch. The obvious concern is Zack Wilson having another meltdown but Mac Jones also likes a turnover and it’s probably good for my pick that the spread is stuck at 3 despite it being likely that everyone is on the Patriots. So I’ll take the Jets D to lead them to an upset win.

Jets 20-17 Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Eagles -7

My Pick:

I like the Eagles to win and cover here. There’s a coaching mismatch, and the Eagles have traded for strong run defenders to beef up their defensive line. I believe they’ll outmatch the Colts in the trenches and that they can dominate this matchup.

Eagles 27-17 Colts

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans

Spread: Commanders -3

My Pick:

I’m going to take the Texans to win outright here. I believe these teams are evenly matched if the game is played at Houston and that Washington’s improved run game may be a 1 week mirage rather than a trend of what’s to come. The Commanders also played on Monday while the Texans had extra rest and they did have success moving the ball against the Giants who have a better defense, the Texans are due a win and they can get it here.

Texans 21-20 Commanders

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -2.5

My Pick:

As you know, my strategy when 2 teams suck is to pick the underdog so I’ll take the Raiders here. Both teams have clearly given up on their coaches and I believe it’ll be easier for the Raiders to exploit Denver’s weakness against the run that it will be for the Broncos to exploit the Raiders having a poor pass defense as Wilson is still playing at a underwhelming level. I’ll take the Raiders to dominate this game and win by a touchdown.

Raiders 24-17 Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Bengals -4

My Pick:

I have the Steelers winning this outright for a few reasons. 1: They’re underrated, this team is massively different with TJ Watt back, 2: Mike Tomlin has a coaching mismatch in his favour 3: The Steelers defense has been excellent at home and the Bengals offense looks a lot worse without Chase. I think this game turns into a bit of a dogfight and the Steelers are better suited to that sort of game.

Steelers 20-14 Bengals

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Cowboys -1.5

My Pick:

There’s been a lot in the media about how the Vikings have a questionable EPA and are massively overrated at 8-1, but they have winning momentum which counts for a lot in this sport and they have the better coach in this game. They have a strong offensive line which can nullify the biggest strength that the Cowboys have on defense and the Cowboys struggle against the run. Prescott hasn’t impressed me this season and he can throw a couple of picks against a ball hawking defense in a Vikings win.

Vikings 27-21 Cowboys

Kansas City Chiefs @ LA Chargers

Spread: Chiefs -5

My Pick:

It looks like the Chargers are getting guys back from injury and that’s why this number is coming down. But with a 6 point Kansas win becoming a win against the spread I’ll take the Chiefs here. I like Reid as a coach more than Staley and Toney has added an extra dimension to the offense of the Chiefs, Herbert has thrown a fair number of interceptions at home and that may be all it takes to get a Chiefs cover.

Chiefs 28-21 Chargers

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: 49ers -8

My Pick:

I’ve got a 49ers win but a Cardinals cover. The Cardinals have an ok run defense in terms of yards per carry and that should mean the 49ers have to throw it more to have success. I’m also not overly down on Colt McCoy and I believe he can keep this game competitive for stretches, the Cardinals could also cover in garbage time with a number this big if we desperately needed them to. I’ll take the 49ers by 7 as their pass rush will cause problems and they can make enough plays on offense in a low scorer.

49ers 21-14 Cardinals

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Falcons -2.5

My Pick:

This is a tough one for me, I have the spread at Falcons -1 and though I believe Carolina can definitely win this game, the Falcons may have more motivation as it seems obvious now that Carolina will be incentivised to tank and take a QB in the 1^st round. The defenses are fairly even and both teams have proven they can do whatever they want on offense to each other in the previous meeting. I’ll just take my spread and say Atlanta win by 1.

Falcons 24-23 Panthers

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -2.5

My Pick:

This spread is straight up wrong in my opinion. Tampa Bay are awfully coached and lack effort, they’re 1 dimensional on offense and give up points on defense. Meanwhile, Seattle are balanced and highly motivated, the fear is their body clocks may not adjust to the timezone but Pete Carroll has an excellent early kick off record in his career and Seattle can win by a touchdown.

Seahawks 24-17 Buccaneers

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Dolphins -3.5

My Pick:

This is another tough one to handicap for me. These teams are evenly matched on paper as both figure to be successful on offense which would put me on Cleveland, but I believe Miami has a coaching advantage and maybe they are just that little bit more explosive. This isn’t a confident pick but I’ll say Miami by 4.

Dolphins 31-27 Browns

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

Spread: Titans -2.5

My Pick:

I’m going against my coaching mismatch theory and taking Denver. Tennessee are extremely 1 dimensional and the Broncos are 2-1 against the AFC South this year, they just had a real season changing win and have had a bye while the Titans are coming off an overtime win. Denver may have a bit more explosiveness in them and can win this game outright.

Broncos 20-14 Titans

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Bears -3

My Pick:

I think moving from -1.5 to -3 for the Bears is a major overreaction to what we saw last week. The Lions were impressive in beating the Packers, the defense is better with guys back from injury and the Bears D was atrocious last week. I think that advantage gives them an edge in this matchup and I’ll take Detroit to pull off the upset.

Lions 27-24 Bears

Houston Texans @ New York Giants

Spread: Giants -4.5

My Pick:

This line was Giants -7 at the start of the week which was too high, but -4.5 seems reasonable now and I will be betting the Giants. The Texans can’t defend the run and while they should have success throwing the ball against a blitz heavy team, I like the Giants to have a coaching edge and the home advantage makes me believe they win by 6.

Giants 26-20 Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -9.5

My Pick:

I like the Chiefs here, Doug Pedersen is a terrible coach and the Chiefs are playing well on defense this season. Their offense will be able to beat Jacksonville deep and Kelce should have a good matchup, the main threat the Jaguars offer comes in the run game but the Chiefs have a solid run defense and I have them winning by 11.

Chiefs 28-17 Jaguars

Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -3.5

My Pick:

Josh Allen will either be out or playing hobbled. I like Minnesota with that being considered. The Bills in a regular season game aren’t miles ahead of this Minnesota team at the moment and Minnesota may see this as a big opportunity to get a statement win, it’ll be a close game and I’ll take the underdog.

Vikings 24-20 Bills

New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Saints -1.5

My Pick:

I’m very surprised the Steelers are underdogs, they’re better coached, possibly more explosive and TJ Watt is coming back. I thought this number would be nearer to Steelers -3 and so I will definitely be betting them to win. Mike Tomlin is excellent against the spread at home and the Saints are struggling heavily on offense at the moment.

Steelers 20-13 Saints

Indianapolis Colts @ LV Raiders

Spread: Raiders -5

My Pick:

Both teams are massively underwhelming, but the Colts may now be in a good situation due to firing Frank Reich. I imagine Jeff Saturday will be there as a motivator and the assistants will do most of the heavy lifting so the Colts will play harder this week. Meanwhile the Raiders are clearly trying to get Josh McDaniels fired and now the season appears lost, so they could end up tanking here and this will be the last straw for McDaniels.

Colts 24-20 Raiders

Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams

Spread: Rams -1.5

My Pick:

I like the Cardinals here, the Rams are a mess and a lost team so I expect McVay to leave at the end of the season, I don’t expect a full effort from them and the Cardinals are a better team than them at the moment. The spread basically sees them as even but the Rams have no home advantage with the lack of atmosphere and the Cardinals should be improving with Hopkins back.

Cardinals 23-20 Rams

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Spread: Cowboys -4.5

My Pick:

The Packers are extremely injured but they are at home and I don’t like taking Mike McCarthy on the road as a favourite against his old team. The Packers are a team that are too proud to intentionally tank and though they have major issues on offense, their defense can keep this game close and I can see them losing by only a field goal in this one.

Cowboys 17-14 Packers

LA Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -7

My Pick:

I’m taking the 49ers here. The signing of McCaffrey has revolutionised them and Brandon Staley is doing an awful job for the Chargers this season. I don’t see them as a team to cover spreads at all and given their offensive issues, I struggle to see them staying competitive in this one.

49ers 30-17 Chargers

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -11

My Pick:

This spread is inflated in my eyes. Washington have played decent teams close as of late and the Eagles may start to look ahead in games and just do enough to win at this time at season, they want to peak for the playoffs and a game like this could get scrappy because of it. I’ll take an Eagles win and a Commanders cover.

Eagles 24-17 Commanders

Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans

Spread: Eagles -14

My Pick:

I’ve found over the years that when there’s an inflated spread that’s over 10, the home team will usually play harder to cover it. So I like the Texans here to cover this number, they can utilise a run first offense against a run defense that gives up 5 yards per carry and that should mean they keep the ball for long enough to not get epically blown out. I do fully expect the Eagles to take care of business and win this one though.

Eagles 27-17 Texans

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Spread: Bills -11.5

My Pick:

I probably should’ve put a side note on the preview for the Eagles game when talking about teams covering large spreads is that my point is void if a team turns the ball over a lot, this is the case with the Jets. I worry for Zach Wilson in this matchup and with the Jets running game having lost Hall, I struggle to see them generating much offense here. The Bills do tend to play hard against their division and I envision a blowout in this one given their offense is too high powered for the Jets to stop.

Bills 28-10 Jets

Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Bengals -7

My Pick:

I’m on Carolina to cover here but lose again. The Bengals were dreadful on Monday night and without Chase to bail out the ineptitude of Zac Taylor, I expect the Bengals to start not covering spreads. PJ Walker looked excellent on Sunday and I don’t think many casual fans will have caught on to this, with a nicely balanced offense they can put up 24 points but I can see the Bengals doing enough with some Burrow magic to scrape a win given the Panthers defense was shredded last week by the Falcons.

Bengals 26-24 Panthers

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Spread: Packers -3.5

My Pick:

I’ve been against the Packers recently due to coaching ineptitude, but I honestly don’t think Dan Campbell is doing a great job with the Lions lately either. This put it as an even coaching matchup and thus comes down to the teams. I’m taking the Packers here, they don’t take lots of sacks so that nullifies the main strength of the Detroit D and they should run and throw the ball well here. The Lions will also have joy on offense but I believe the Packers D are more likely to force turnovers and that can be the difference in this one.

Packers 31-24 Lions

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -5.5

My Pick:

This is the biggest coaching mismatch of the week. The Colts players are making very basic errors and look to have given up on Reich. Their defense is solid but can be gashed through the air and if Bailey Zappe starts, the Patriots can run a efficient offense through him. I don’t see the Colts scoring a lot of points with a rookie QB against Belichick and that should lead to a New England cover.

Patriots 24-13 Colts

LA Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Chargers -3

My Pick:

I’m taking the Falcons here. The Chargers are injured and they’re horrible against the run. I can see this being a similar story to the Browns and 49ers games for the Falcons where they can run all over an injured team, especially with Patterson back and with the Chargers likely to be 1 dimensional and with Herbert throwing some poor picks this year, I can see the Chargers struggling more than they should to score on the Falcons. I’ll take Atlanta by 7.

Falcons 28-21 Chargers

Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Raiders -1.5

My Pick:

I wouldn’t go anywhere near this game on a betting front. Both teams are horribly coached and we don’t know if the Raiders have recovered from their team illness. This game will likely come to QB play as both teams are solid against the run and that also fills me with no confidence since both QBs have been underwhelming. I’m taking Jacksonville to win purely because they’re a minor underdog and they’re at home but don’t go near this game.

Jaguars 24-21 Raiders

Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears

Spread: Dolphins -4.5

My Pick:

Before the trade deadline I had this game lined up as my upset of the week, but the Bears losing Smith and the Dolphins gaining Chubb does change things. But I’ll still take the upset, the Miami D-line is horrible and the Bears should have a lot of success running the ball, Fields is playing excellently this year and the Bears D may force a couple of turnovers in a stadium that is tricky to play at. I’ll take the Bears by 6.

Bears 27-21 Dolphins

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders

Spread: Vikings -3

My Pick:

I’m not as down on Washington as I was earlier in the season so I wouldn’t be going over the top on this pick but I still like Minnesota here. They have a strong run defense and with Washington struggling to run the ball, I expect their offense to be 1 dimensional here which opens up the door for one of the O-lines that has allowed the most sacks to get hammered here. Washington still also have major secondary issues and I expect the Vikings will have too much for them on offense and they can cover the spread here.

Vikings 28-20 Commanders

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -2

My Pick:

The Cardinals shouldn’t be favourites here. They’re a poorly coached team that love to shoot themselves in the foot and that won’t be good news against a well drilled and improving Seattle team. Their defense has already shut down Arizona once this season and with their run game on the improve, I don’t see why they shouldn’t win here.

Seahawks 24-20 Cardinals

LA Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Buccaneers -3

My Pick:

You could make a case for these 2 teams being the most disappointing in the league this year. Tampa are poorly coached and the Rams just suck for whatever reason. Neither team can run the ball but the Rams have a worse pass defense than the Buccaneers so I’m going to be on Tampa here. I expect this game to be very ugly but the Bucs can grind out a result, especially if Kupp isn’t fully fit.

Buccaneers 23-17 Rams

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -12.5

My Pick:

Even if Malik Willis starts, this spread is heavily inflated. The Titans are better coached than the Chiefs and have an excellent defense that can keep them in games. They may have been destroyed by the Bills earlier this season but I imagine with a run heavy offense they’ll turn the ball over and even though I expect them to lose, they’ll play conservatively enough to keep things respectable.

Chiefs 24-14 Titans